Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast where we have conversations with futurists, innovators and big thinkers about what lies ahead. We explore emerging trends on the horizon and what it means to be a futurist.
Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Right Sizing the Future with Gabe Cervantes | Think Forward EP 149
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A lot of strategy collapses the moment a "guarantee" fails, and the easiest way to find those guarantees is to notice what you never question. We start with something as small as flipping a light switch, then zoom out with futurist Gabe Cervantes, Director of Scalable Foresight at the Institute for the Future, to ask what leaders should do when the assumptions behind business, society, and daily life stop holding up. The goal isn't predicting the future. It's building the habit of challenging what feels inevitable, so you can see disruption earlier and respond with intent.
Gabe shares what he's learned building scalable strategic foresight as a design problem: how much futures thinking an organization actually needs, and who should own it. We talk through a counterintuitive rule, sometimes the most productive futures workshop happens when the boss steps out, because psychological safety is the fuel for "ridiculous" ideas that later become real insights. We also unpack the lonely futurist problem and why "never future alone" protects teams from bias and makes the capability last.
From there we get into generative AI and the future of work. Gabe makes the case for augmentation over automation and effectiveness over raw efficiency, especially when AI can deliver confidently wrong answers with total conviction. He offers a practical way to use AI well in foresight work: challenge, augment, reframe. We close by connecting foresight to lived experience through Gabe's nomadic journey across 16 cities, remote work incentive programs, and the need for "islands of continuity" in a world that keeps moving.
The companion Future Proof newsletter issue built on this conversation, Confidently Wrong, is out this week: https://befutureproof.substack.com/ / https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/future-proof-7303526412311842816/
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Challenging Assumptions With A Light Switch
0:34 Meet Gabe And The 10-Year Horizon
2:25 Measuring Foresight By Conversation
4:20 Building Scalable Foresight In Organizations
7:41 When The Boss Leaves The Room
10:57 Never Future Alone
12:58 Foresight Finds Better Questions
16:30 Generative AI For Augmentation
24:03 Challenge Augment Reframe With AI
25:58 Tipping Point For The Futures Field
28:01 Training Futurists To Drive Action
30:55 The Nomadic Futurist Across 16 Cities
37:39 Islands Of Continuity For Nomads
40:09 Signals We Might Be Missing
41:02 Career Advice And Legacy
45:51 Where To Find Gabe And Closing
ABOUT GABE CERVANTES
Gabe Cervantes is Director of Scalable Foresight at the Institute for the Future, where he helps organizations build the internal capability to think seriously about their own futures instead of outsourcing it to a single consultant or a single report.
Gabe's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gabe-cervantes-ab147338/
Gabe's Firm: https://www.cfuturesconsulting.com
RESOURCES MENTIONED
SuperShifts, my book on the forces reshaping business and society: https://www.supershiftsbook.com/
Future Proof, my weekly newsletter on foresight and leadership: Substack: https://befutureproof.substack.com/
My website: https://www.stevenfisher.io/
My LinkdedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenfisher/
SPONSOR THIS EPISODE
Interested in sponsoring Think Forward or partnering as an affiliate? Email sfisher@humanfrontier.org to reach a growing audience of leaders and futurists thinking seriously about what's next.
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
Challenging Assumptions With Light Switch
SPEAKER_03The thing that I've learned from Futures is the most valuable thing futures has taught me is to challenge assumptions. I go and I turn on a light switch, and you know, I don't even think about whether the light is going to come on or not. And I think a lot of us in business and in society and in our daily lives, we just assume that the world is going to keep spinning and operating the way that it does. And futures thinking is really good at not every time, not every day, but carving out a space to say, but what if the light didn't turn on?
Meet Gabe And The 10-Year Horizon
SPEAKER_01Gabe, welcome to Think Forward. Thanks, Steve. Thanks for having me on. Well, Gabe, we've known each other for a couple years. I think you're one of the most interesting uh people to talk to. My grandmother would call you a character. As we talk about experiences in life, I think your journey is I, you know, the nomadic futurist, as I will kind of call you these days. Yeah, how did you come to what's been your journey through this space and how you kind of got into it?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, well, Steve, you know, the first thing I learned kind of entering the futures field is no one can predict the future, and like the next 10 years, you never know what's gonna happen. And um my goodness, when I look back over my last eight years as a professional futurist, I'm like, those words could not have had been truer, right? I I never would have imagined that today I'd be in the position where I'm at, kind of uh gone through the journey that I have. And so, you know, no one can predict the future. And 10 years is a really long time for things to look fundamentally different than you imagine, fundamentally different than kind of how you expected, fundamentally different than they were uh when you first started. So, you know, I I like to think of it, Steve, as like I'm living proof of that, living testimony of that notion.
SPEAKER_01You talk about the 10-year horizon. And you work, you're uh part of the Institute for the Future out of California, and you know, they're famous, they do their 10-year uh project every year. How do you how do you find that because obviously it's futures, we don't predict the future, right? We look at the possible futures. How have you found if you've looked back at 10-year uh forecasts or horizons, you know, have you seen uh hit big hits, big misses, big, you know, big bullseyes?
Measuring Foresight By Conversation
SPEAKER_03Yeah, Steve, you know, it's it's so interesting. The Institute for the Future, we've been around, you know, for several decades now, and we always look back, just kind of what were we thinking about? What were we talking about? And, you know, obviously there are the ones that you get, you know, correct, the ones that, you know, you researchers kind of hit on the nose, um, ones that probably futures that went in a different direction that you weren't expecting. You know, sometimes you're a little disappointed, my goodness, I wish this industry really would have taken this seriously, um, or I wish this player would have really jumped on that opportunity. It would have been so amazing. But I think what we're really looking for when we look back at futures work that we do is did we spark conversation? Uh, did we engage people around provocative ideas, provocative ideas that kind of move the needle forward, move the needle forward in very positive ways for individuals, for organizations, and also just for society at large. So when we're looking back, I think it's less of what did we get right, what didn't we get right? It's more of did we get the right people to come to the table uh and engage in proper futures work.
SPEAKER_01Do you think that they did?
SPEAKER_03I think in many respects, yes, absolutely, right? I think that's why the Institute for the Future has been around as long as it has. Um, you know, obviously we're not experts in any particular industry. We we choose not to be. I think one of the exciting things that we're seeing today is, you know, more and more futurists entering the space. And you guys that's really scary for you know someone like the Institute for the Future. Uh, but in a way, we kind of welcome it, right? It's it's amazing that more and more people are interested in the futures field, are interested in future study, uh, are interested in bringing kind of these roles internally within their organizations. I think that's a very exciting
Building Scalable Foresight In Organizations
SPEAKER_03thing.
SPEAKER_01Well, it and that goes to like you've you've had four roles there. You've been there about uh eight years, well, right? And uh Yeah, so you're the director of Scalable Foresight. I mean, that kind of speaks to you know many people uh we've talked to on the show about growing this in an organization, making it usable. And like you said, there's more in the people in the field, many you know, doing the work and really exploring things. So do you find that's a sign of a healthy organization? Or do like you find the the opposite?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, Steve. You know, I joined the institute as a research assistant, supporting Bob Johansson, former president of the institute, you know, distinguished fellow there now. And uh, you know, Bob kind of had this notion, and you know, we joke about it all the time, but you know, Bob brings on young people who uh his definition are purposefully different than him, right? You're you're different than him in an interesting way. Um and the idea was to just come for two years, you know, kind of help Bob and learn from Bob and learn the future's craft and then kind of see what would happen next. Um, you know, for better or for worse, I joined and I started supporting Bob and we kind of broke the mold. Uh, you know, at the end of two years, we kind of looked at each other and said, we kind of like uh, you know, the way we're working, we like the way we push on each other's ideas. Let's continue to work together. Um, continued on kind of uh evolving and the evolution of different roles. Eventually, um, you know, the institute was gracious enough to allow me to create my own role. Uh, director of scalable force. I did Google this, I looked on LinkedIn. I have not found anyone who has, right? Um, and and I don't know that that's necessarily a good thing. Maybe it's not, but um, you know, the institute allowed me to create this role out of uh the need that I saw, which is, you know, futures thinking is really becoming popular. It's becoming necessary, it's becoming understandable to business leaders, uh, it's becoming understandable, understandable to nonprofit leaders, to government leaders, um, that, you know, thinking about the future is important and the future is very disruptive, the future is very chaotic, the future is is, you know, kind of at the mercy of rapid transformation. And so, director of scalable foresight came out of this notion of working with organizations who were faced with this challenge of how do we write-sized futures thinking in our org? Is it just one person? Is it one team? Is it everyone who should be doing this? You know, is it 50% of our time spent on the future? Is it 5% of our time? And so, as director of Scalable Foresight, I've been fortunate enough to work with organizations of all shapes and sizes, all industries, all sectors, really all around the world, to kind of tackle that question of how much futures thinking, uh, how much strategic foresight, how much anticipating of the future uh should you be bringing into your org? What does that look like and who's responsible for that?
SPEAKER_01So you mentioned you have uh a couple principles around this. Do you uh you walk through
When The Boss Leaves The Room
SPEAKER_01those? I think that'll help frame it for people as well.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, you know, the principles are kind of constantly evolving and constantly shifting. But, you know, uh there's I think five that I I'm really kind of honing in on. Um, some of the most important ones is, you know, and some of these feel counterintuitive, Steve. But you know, one of the ones that I've learned in doing this work is sometimes having the boss in the room is actually a disservice to the process. Right? You know, you you think, wow, we've got the boss, we've got the CEO, we've got the executive sponsor in the room. Um, this is gonna be so great. And then you go through the process of futures thinking, which is uh, you know, let's present some ideas that are fundamentally different uh than how the world operates today. And they seem a little ridiculous, they seem a little silly. And what tends to happen is really smart, brilliant people notice that the boss is in the room and they don't want to look foolish. They don't want to say something seemingly ridiculous because we've been told in the corporate world you're supposed to be serious, you're not supposed to have fun, you're not supposed to throw these ridiculous ideas out there. But, you know, Steve, what you and I know from Futures Thinking is that that's where the real conversation starts.
SPEAKER_02Right.
SPEAKER_03That's where the real conversation is birthed from those seemingly ridiculous futures where we engage and we talk about well, well, what are the insights? What does this mean? How do we move towards action to run towards these futures or run away from these futures? And so one of the principles of scalable foresight is you obviously need that executive sponsor, that executive permission, but sometimes you need to ask the boss in the room, hey, I need you to leave for a little bit, because we really need to get everyone uh brewing these seemingly ridiculous ideas, these seemingly ridiculous futures. And that can limit the creativity, that can limit the process in ways uh that we hadn't anticipated before.
SPEAKER_01That's great. I think that the this this kind of leads to what I call the lonely futurist problem. You know, I I've seen this, and I'm curious how much you've seen this as well in terms of creating scalable foresight. Is you know, somebody joins a company, first foresight hire, maybe else, or they come in as a different thing, but they're the foresight person, they kind of evangelize it, do some great work, build, you know, maybe a little bit of a circle or tribe or you know, whatever shape that is, then but they leave and then the capability evaporates. And you know, do you see that a lot? And if you like, why do you think this happens?
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SPEAKER_03Yeah, Steve, that's a great question. And you know, it's actually one of the five principles, right, that I talk about mobile foresight is never future
(Cont.) When The Boss Leaves The Room
SPEAKER_03alone. Um, and and that's for several reasons. One is the reason that you just highlighted, the reason that you just pointed out. Um, you know, sometimes you get uh people in an organization who get it, who understand it. Um then there's others who have skepticism. And you know, a healthy dose of skepticism is great, it's wonderful, it's necessary. Um, but when you can't draw the link and you can't make the connection, uh, the theory versus the practice, the you
Never Future Alone
SPEAKER_03know, the 10 years out versus what do we start to do today? What do we do tomorrow? Um, there's that inherent disconnect. Um, you know, the other side of it, Steve, is that there's just no way to avoid our own biases. Uh there's no way to avoid just kind of my own life experiences, my own opinions, um, my own just kind of humanness. And so one of the only ways that I think is helpful in combating our our own kind of judgments and and blind spots is to bring others, bring others who think differently than us. Um, you know, I talked about Bob Johansson's requirement for different than me in an interesting way. I think that's a perfect standard uh for finding a futurist community. Uh, find someone who understands and gets the value of futures thinking, who thinks differently than you, who has a different life experience than you, um, because that's when you get to push on each other's ideas and perspectives and really not be blindsided into going down just one future path, but really considering alternative futures and trying to measure uh the worthiness of those futures and the impacts for your yourself, your organization, and society at large.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I think about the you know, you've talked about this, like foresight needing to be collective. You know, I think there's different models out there. I mean, have you seen organizational models that work well?
SPEAKER_03I've seen a lot of organizational models. I think this definition of works really depends on what the end goal is, right? And and Steve, this is leads me to the third principle of scalable foresight, which is you have to understand skill strategic foresight, thinking about the future, is not about finding the answer. Oftentimes I go into organizations and I'm helping them kind of understand uh, you know, how they do strategic foresight
Foresight Finds Better Questions
SPEAKER_03internally. And it it seems like their goal is to get to an answer. It seems like their goal is, and that's just natural, right? I mean, obviously we would think that we want to get to the answer. But what I have to coach these folks on, what I have to really convince them of, is sometimes the end goal is not getting to the perfect answer. It's uncovering a question you didn't even know existed. It's uncovering a new problem or a new challenge that is likely to blindside you, which if it does come to pass, could be detrimental to you, right? I mean, imagine, you know, these organizations that are long gone now, right? Uh an organization like, I don't know, Blockbuster, right? Uh Blockbuster shouldn't have been trying to look for the answer, but looking for that blind spot, looking for that new question of what if the world shifts? What if the world operates in a new way that we're not used to, that we haven't been paying attention to? What happens then, right? I mean, there are countless examples in business and society at large where you're not looking for the answer. Uh, strategic foresight, you know, can help you come up with a answer. Um, I don't think it's going to be the answer unless you're very lucky. Um, but strategic foresight really should be used. The collective thinking should be used to identify new challenges, uh, new opportunities, uh, new kind of blind spots on the horizon. Um, and and you monitor those, right? You you see kind of you track them over time. Um, you're not gonna take everything seriously all at once. You're not gonna try and address every single thing uh every single day, every single moment, but you're gonna be wise and kind of tracking and understanding the evolution of those challenges, of those blind spots, even of those emergent opportunities.
SPEAKER_01When I see uh MA groups and PE firms using foresight more because they are trying to figure out what the possible futures are in terms of investment or divest sure, and it's an important becoming an important part of the decision making matrix and how they look at you know risk and investment. And you know, it also comes to the use of of course everybody talks about AI right now, but you know, you have obviously strong opinions uh about as do I. And you and you worked on the new addition with Bob for Leaders Make the Future, but you know you also make this argument that it's a tool of augmentation, not automation. So you know, I'd I'd love to hear you make kind of make the case for that. Um I'm not gonna say I agree or disagree, because a lot of people are looking at you know this to get rid of labor or how to optimize. So you've got some pretty specific views on that.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, um, you know, Steve, I had the privilege of working with Bob Johansson and the third colleague of ours, Jeremy Kirschbaum, um on the third edition of Leaders Make the Future, um, which was kind of looking at the 10 new skills to humanize leadership in an era of generative AI. Um and so, you know, to Bob and to Jeremy's credit, uh, they approached me and said, we'd like you to join as a third. And I said, I will join on the one condition that you let me
Generative AI For Augmentation
SPEAKER_03be the skeptic. That the role that I play in this book and in kind of writing and pushing our ideas is to kind of uh you know, not let ourselves get uh too overfascinated with the possibilities, but really present some difficult challenges. And so, you know, to Bob and to Jeremy's credit, they said, absolutely, we think that's necessary, we think that's needed. And so we started the process and you know, in classic kind of IFTF format, um, we started looking at generative AI from the present forward view. Um, how are people, how is the industry, how are you know, governments and regulators thinking about AI today and kind of how they anticipate its impact in the future? Um, we we we looked into that, we studied that, we talked to experts uh around the world on that. Um, and then we did uh the future back view. Let's forecast out 10 years in the future and work backwards. And and so we came up with this juxtaposition of generative AI, AI in general, but more specifically, generative AI in the present forward view and the future back view. And we kind of outlined these different areas of if you actually think future back, here's a really exciting role that generative AI can play. Today, the present forward view is that of automation. We're just gonna automate work, we're we're gonna automate processes, we're gonna automate the human out of the process. And the present forward view, the present forward argument is that of automation, that of removing the human from the center, putting generative AI there, and just doing things more efficiently. You know, Steve, it turns out that uh if you look at the history of work, specifically office work, kind of professional like collar work, everything has been over the last kind of several hundred years uh for the purpose of efficiency, uh doing things cheaper, doing things faster, uh, doing things more efficiently.
SPEAKER_01Uh we've been human labor and human human function, right? It's been about the machine and the energy, the human, not the mental, the yeah. But I just want like that's that to me is the big dividing line of the last you know, thousands of years. It's always been about improving human production and labor and energy behind that. So that's right, Steve.
SPEAKER_03And and so you know, you can even think about it beyond just white-collar work, right? Just kind of labor in general, as you're saying. But but you know, if you really look at it, we've kind of hit the ceiling. I think, you know, humbly, we've hit the max. So there's so much less uh uh more efficiency. There's very little less efficiency that we can keep creating, we can kind of push beyond. What we're what we should be focusing on is effectiveness, right? Like how do I get the job, the function, the role done, not just efficiently, but effectively, right? And and I think they come coupled together, but we've been over-indexing on efficiency and not effectiveness. And in a world of misinformation, in a world of disinformation, in a world where generative AI gives you very confidently an answer that turns out to be incorrect or that turns out to just be one part of the broader picture, I would much rather go for effectiveness than efficiency. You know, you may remember this from maybe it was two, three summers ago, Steve, but like there was this viral moment uh where people were going on a GPT um and asking it, what is two plus two? And it very confidently kept saying the answer was three. And you could not convince the AI that two plus two did not equal three. I mean, it gave you a very efficient, very quick answer, but it was very wrong. I I mean, there's other classic examples of like how many Rs are in the word strawberry. And I'm sure, you know, if you do it today, I'm sure they've kind of fixed those things. But, you know, it was saying very clearly there are two R's in strawberry. And people were like, no, no, there's actually three.
SPEAKER_02Three. There's three.
SPEAKER_03It there was this disconnect. And, you know, again, it it was created to give you very efficient answers. You churn in a question, it churned out an answer very, very quickly, very efficiently. But we started to realize that those answers were wrong. Those answers couldn't be trusted. Those answers might be really good or they might be really bad. And it ended up causing us more time, more energy, more resources to triple check, to double check, to fact-check that. And so again, the future back view is not this story of automation. It's this story of augmentation. It's not the story of finding answers. It's it's the story of pushing your ideas, pushing your narrative in new and interesting ways. Um, you know, we have Google. Don't use generative AI as Google because you have Google. Why you, you know, why would you use a new tool in a way that you're already using other tools, especially when the process is broken? When the process doesn't necessarily work.
SPEAKER_01Well, and I think that it kind of focusing that down into the work of a futurist, right? If you know AI is handling signal gathering, the data crunch, right? The static work, as we like to call it. Um, what does it free up? Because I also look at safe futures, right? It's like what is really coming out of the system itself. What do you think it allows and frees up the human futurist to actually do in this case?
SPEAKER_03Well, well, Steve, again, back to that augmentation story, right? I mean, the automation story takes the human out of the center. The augmentation story keeps the human in the center, it understands how far the human goes, and then it deploys generative AI at the edge, at the edge of your competence. And when you look at it that way, you can go so much further. And so, you know, when it comes to futures work, I have yet to see a GPT, a generative AI platform that is just really good at finding provocative signals and turning them into scenarios. I think if you feed it something to begin with and then say, this is as far as I got, how far can you go? That's when you get really interesting, provocative places. Uh that's where the GPT really shines and really thrives. Um, you know, the framework that I use, Steve, is challenge augment reframe. Uh I have my own idea of a topic, I have my own idea of a future, I have my own understanding of the implications. And I want to use a GPT, I want to use conversation, I want to use a process to challenge that idea, right? Kind of give me the counter-argument to augment it, kind of show me this idea in a new light, in a new context, a new way of thinking, or to reframe it. Uh, to say, you know, you've been thinking about this in one way, here's a totally different way where your thinking kind
Challenge Augment Reframe With AI
SPEAKER_03of doesn't address that challenge, augment, reframe. I think if you use generative AI as an augmentation tool, that process of challenge, augment, reframe becomes really powerful when you in an AI, uh, you know, when you're using generative AI to augment yourself in that way.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's interesting because I think about the the gathering of stuff. I actually put the person in two places. I put it in the uh, like you said, the gathering part, then the the review and the maybe adding more of the provocative parts and then putting it into the system and then bringing it back down. It's almost like the diamonds and design thing, you know, kind of the the focus, you know, go out, go come back, um, type of type of prop process. And do you think do you think we're entering a golden age of of foresight? Because it's the the field itself is going through a lot of ups and downs. And like you said, there's a lot more people doing it. Some are doing the work, some are hitched onto the term to for clout or for other reasons. There's a lot of good people doing this kind of work. I mean, do you think you think we're there? You think we're on the on the path because of what's been driving this?
SPEAKER_03You know, Steve, I think we're at a tipping point.
SPEAKER_01Um, you know, okay. Yeah, please, yeah, expand on that. Yeah.
SPEAKER_03So so, you know, I noticed this. I I lived as through COVID-19 as a futurist, right? Um I I'm living through the chaos of the world today, kind of geopolitically, economically, socially, um, you know, technologically, environmentally, all of the things that are happening. And it I think people's definition, and and I hear this from my clients all the time, is Gabe, 10 years is great. You know, in an ideal world, we'd be thinking about 10 years. But shouldn't future thinking
Tipping Point For The Futures Field
SPEAKER_03just like go out three years? Like something could happen on the global stage tomorrow that completely does away with what you're talking about. And so why would we go out 10 years? So, Steve, I do think we're at this interesting tipping point where like, yes, people are understanding the need for futures thinking and something like COVID, something like a new war, something like uh, you know, a new political figure could come on stage and really disrupt things. And we should think about kind of uh challenging those assumptions. But if that one thing, if that one event, if that one person, if that one kind of social behavior changes, then you know it changes everything in the next year. So why would we look beyond the next year? And it's this push and pull. And so, you know, Steve, I my kind of humble request of people entering the future space is be true to the 10-year time frame. For most professional futurists, you and I know this, uh, 10 years seems to be that sweet spot. Um, you know, sometimes it's it's further out, sometimes it's shorter. Um, but we can't allow ourselves just out of fear, uh, just out of you know, constant disruption, out of constant chaos, to really shrink in that timeline because it moves us away from what at the core is futures thinking.
SPEAKER_01So, you know, think about like educating futurists, right? It's like obviously you guys have a legendary beta curriculum. I've done them. They're they're they're awesome. I've done a lot of different foresight training. Uh what do you think we need to do to train the next generation? Like, what would you change? What would you improve? What would you add? What do you think is you know what's missing right now?
SPEAKER_03That's a great question. Um, you know, I think future space has kind of lived in this very academic space, this very theoretical space, right? Futurists go off and do this great work and
Training Futurists To Drive Action
SPEAKER_03come up with these grand ideas. But we lack futurists that can pull the thread and say, so what does this mean for policy? What does this mean for business decision? What does this mean for hiring decisions, right? I mean, kind of futurists are known for leading the horse to water and then saying, all right, horse, up to you if you're gonna drink or not, right? And I've seen this happen countless times at the Institute for the Future. I mean, brilliant foresight. I mean, some of our, you know, just kind of brilliant researchers who who are in this day in and day out come up with these provocative visions of possible futures and scenarios. Um, and then the organization, the business, the client, the partner that we're working with decides we're not going to do anything about it. Because we don't know how. We don't understand how to carry this forward other than just wait, other than wait and see. And so my hope is that the next evolution, the next generation of futurists learns how to take theory and research and kind of the academic side of it and really turn it into practice without kind of tarnishing it in a way that just turns you into a basic consultant. And I think consultants are great, right? No, not to them. But but I don't think we should be trying to just replace what consultants do, right? Kind of uh, you know, the space that consultants are in, but really pull the thread of being that translator, uh pulling out the key insights and saying, let's build the future back roadmap uh to get us from where we are today to where we want to be in the future.
SPEAKER_01Well, you have seen a lot, uh, like I said, of clients, but also cities. You know, you I mentioned earlier they called you the nomadic futurist. You've been to, I believe, 16, you live in 16 cities over three years. Is that accurate? Is that correct?
SPEAKER_03That's right. That's right. I'm currently in Dallas, Texas, my 16th city.
SPEAKER_01Yep. So I guess for me, like you you see the future of cities, efficiencies, non-efficiencies, it's cut a lot. And it's that's been globally, that's not just the United States, right? So there's a lot of different flavors of things. Um what's the favorite, what's your favorite one? And then one that surprised you. Yeah, good c I know, because what what did it what stood out to you? Because it's it's a it's it's a lot to live, it's a lot, it's a lot to move in these places, and you get to see a lot of different environments, man.
SPEAKER_03So yeah, so so Steve, I I should mention that you know this journey actually started off of a signal, a signal of change. Um, okay.
SPEAKER_02Great.
SPEAKER_03During the COVID-19 pandemic, um, you know, we were looking at different things, and one of the signals that popped up was a remote worker incentive program. Um, the one that I found was out of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Um Tulsa, Oklahoma is probably one of the oldest programs to kind of run this. You
The Nomadic Futurist Across 16 Cities
SPEAKER_03see this all over the world now. Um kind of city and state and federal federal governments now uh will give uh people incentives, uh, a tax incentive. Uh they help you buy your first house. Uh Tulsa, Oklahoma gave me cold hard cash and said, come live here for a year and we'll give you X amount of money. Um and you know, the idea is to revitalize the local economy, to bring outside talent, um, especially young talent that's focused on STEM and tech in particular, um, to kind of bring them back to these parts of the world that have been suffering or that don't have enough diversity of representation, and and you know, kind of hope that they'll fall in love, that they'll create community, that they'll stay there. So this journey actually started off by finding that signal and saying, hey, that's kind of cool, right? I mean, I was living in Palo Alto in Silicon Valley, in the Bay Area, very expensive. COVID-19 had disrupted work. Um, you know, I was working from home anyways, and so I said, there's really no reason to stay in Palo Alto. Uh so I packed up my bags, I got accepted to the Tulsa Oklahoma program, did it for a year. Um, you know, Tulsa's great, Tulsa's wonderful, but I knew that it wasn't kind of my forever home. Um, and I also knew that I didn't want to move back to Palo Alto. I didn't want to, you know, at least at that time, didn't want to just go back to the way things were. So I decided to do this on my own. Um and since then I've just kind of been bouncing around from city to city. And, you know, the idea here, Steve, is eventually I will find someone, something, somewhere worth settling down for. And until that happens, I'm just gonna keep exploring. I'm gonna keep kind of going out and seeing what the world has to offer. Um, you know, I do have like a bucket list or a checklist of things that I do in every city just to make sure that I'm giving each city a fair shake. Um, you know, so for example, one of those things is I share a meal with a local. And I use the term local very loosely, but I find someone who lives in the community, who lives in the city. Sometimes it's a barber, it's an Uber driver, sometimes it's a random person you find, you know, online, and you just say, hey, listen, I'd love to take you out for a bite to eat. Let's go connect over lunch or dinner. Um, and and look and understand their city through through their eyes and their perspective. Um, so you know, there's like six or seven things that I do in every city. Um, and you know, obviously come connect to the futurist community, connect to clients and partners that are there. Um, and say, I'm here for a little bit, right? Let's talk about the future, let's engage with this idea for the future. Um and so it's it's been a fascinating journey.
SPEAKER_01So what uh so what's what's the best one? What's the best city so far?
SPEAKER_03You know, I think Chicago or San Diego really kind of stole my heart. I was just in San Diego.
SPEAKER_01Very different weather, very different culture. That's interesting.
SPEAKER_03Yes, yes, absolutely. Um, but you know, I so Chicago in the summertime is what I should say. Um, not not in the wintertime.
SPEAKER_01No. Well, what's the which one surprised you the most? Like you had expectations in your mind.
SPEAKER_03You know, was it Tulsa? I went, no, surprisingly not, but that's second, probably that would be my second choice. Um, I went to Denver, Colorado, and um I left Denver pretty quickly uh just for personal reasons. I think I walked into Denver with certain expectations that weren't met. And so I ended up in Salt Lake City, Utah. And so it's beautiful there. Yes, Salt Lake City, Utah actually surprised me. I was like, wow, I did not imagine that I would like Salt Lake City, Utah in the way that I do. Um and you know, Steve, part of the criteria, I mean, I say criteria, there's you know, I wake up one morning and decide, I'm just gonna move here next. And like, let's just see what happens. Um, but part of the criteria is making sure that I don't have a strong network, that I don't know a lot of people. Um, that, you know, I may have one or two family friends or, you know, kind of alumni from the school that I went to, you know, my undergrad university. Um, but but it's not about moving to places where I have a strong network. It's about moving to places where I don't know many people and trying to find community, trying to find connections. Um, you know, in a certain way, Steve, to bring this back to futures, I actually think I'm a signal for a lifestyle that's going to be a lot more common in the future. Whether it's for geopolitical reasons, for climate reasons, for economic reasons. I think people are going to be living much more nomadically in the future than we are today.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's interesting you say that. Just a quick thing on Salt Lake. I think for me, the trying to get my wife to move there, it's it's actually the best place for your active and outdoors, it's the best place in the country to live. And it's also obviously as a snowboarder, mountain biker, it's just like kind of heaven and it's at altitude, so things, you know, melt faster, like kind of in Denver. But the big thing that my wife couldn't, she's been there a lot is uh the subduction layer with smog because it's in kind of a bowl. I guess the only thing that you know you have to be aware of is the the weather. But you know, you and I both lived in San Francisco and we we understand microclimates very well. Um, you know, but it's interesting, you know, and you talk about this nomadic life, and I I'm a big fan of the nomad capitalist channel. Uh he talks, you know, where you get passports or you know, like like you said, like digital visas or uh, you know, how I I agree. I think more people will be nomadic. It's a question of, you know, it's a lot of complexities and taxes or things that if you're a United States citizen, but um do you think that's a signal people are not watching enough? Or do you think there is there something out there they think people are kind of sleeping on? Because you you and I we watch the landscape a lot.
SPEAKER_03I mean, listen, there's some interesting signals that come out of this. Uh, there are companies that are catering to the nomadic lifestyle. Um you know, for example, I use this service for for apartments, right? It's a network of furnished apartments. I just have to give them a two weeks' notice and I bounce around from one apartment to the next. And uh, you know, it's a really interesting concept. You know, the furnishings are the same, uh, the paintings on the walls are the same, the cutlery, the the towels that you dry yourself with are the same. And it's this whole notion of like when you step outside, you're in a brand new city, you're in a brand new context, you're in a brand new environment. But when you're in
Islands Of Continuity For Nomads
SPEAKER_03the confines of your home, everything's the same. There's a familiarity. And and so it's kind of this concept of like what I've been tinkering with, uh, might possibly uh a future book, who knows? Um, but what what I'm calling islands of continuity uh in a world, in a future that is constantly changing, uh, in a future that is constantly evolving and things are so uncertain. What are those islands of continuity that are going to keep us grounded? Uh what are those islands of continuity that, you know, we understand. I can deal with the changing nature of everything else around me because here's the consistent thing.
SPEAKER_01You know, I think, yeah, I agree with you because I think that they have um, yeah, there's consistencies like furnishings, things. It's kind of a hotel-ish model, but it's also hotels definitely feel like temporary, whereas you need to feel like you're in somebody's place or like an Airbnb, right? It's lived in, it's but it is there's a familiar, you know, consistency in coffee machines and just little things, right? It's like, you know, th you know, 30 different places, 30 different fridges, right? And it's just you you you want a little, like, okay, I they have the same cough kind of coffee machines. I like always have my Keurig or whatever. And it it matters because that takes more brain power and processing than you really want to have. That's why some people wear the same thing every day because I don't have to think about it. Yeah. And you know, taking that noise out of the system, allowing you to kind of move. I think things like digital currency will also matter quite a bit. Being able to be portable and like, you know, I think the big thing is gonna be bank accounts. Like, how do you navigate countries with different bank? You know, if you're there for a few months, like how do you do that, right? And you have a service. I think you're right. There's a lot. Um I'm seeing things on the quantum computing side that I think a lot of people are sleeping on. I'm as a digital currency, uh, you know, digital asset person. A lot of places, a lot of the big like ledger, they're all trying to kind of quantum secure things because I think that's the thing that people are freaking out the most, is that it would and people are not paying enough attention to how much quantum is making change and leaps to the point where it's going to become more commercial in the next few years that I don't think people really realize and what that's going to do. Um you know, I you know, as we kind of wrap things, I I'd love to, you know, we've talked a lot about careers, and I think people listening to this that are futurists or they, you know, thinking about this field, and you're a great example
Signals We Might Be Missing
SPEAKER_01of you know entering it, growing through it, you know, seeing the future of it. What would you wish you learned? Like what you when you when you work with Bob, what do you think, what would you wish you knew in the beginning of that? Yeah, you tell yourself that, right?
SPEAKER_03You know, Steve, I I guess classic, the imposter syndrome sets in very early on. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's really hard to shake, right? Um, you know, I think there are folks who have the benefit of having studied this and kind of gone through and gotten a professional degree, which I think is great. But for personally, I think for some futurists, um, you know, they walk in with this certain ambition and the certain kind of thing that they like, and that's kind of their focus. And they try to, you know, become an expert in that field and you know, become the voice of that future. And I think
Career Advice And Legacy
SPEAKER_03there's a place for that, but the thing that I've learned from futures is the most valuable thing futures has taught me is to challenge assumptions, to challenge our everyday assumptions, right? I mean, I go and I turn on a light switch, and you know, I don't even think about whether the light is gonna come on or not, right?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it just does.
SPEAKER_03I just expect it to happen. And I think a lot of us in business and in society and in our daily lives, we just assume that the world is gonna keep spinning and operating the way that it does. And here's thinking is really good at not every time, not every day, but carving out a space to say, but what if the light didn't turn on? What then? Right? Uh like let's just think through the the scenarios, the possibilities, uh what could happen? How do you start to respond? And so I think as as people are are thinking about or starting off their career in future spaces, never lose sight of futures thinking testing your assumptions, challenging your assumptions. I do this with coworkers every day, right? It's like, why why don't we just talk about like, do we need oxygen to breathe in the future? Uh, you know, will the sun continue to arise? And you know, they kind of look at you like, Gabe, you're a little crazy, right? But it's like that's what futures thinking is is going to our everyday assumptions and saying, you know, will the US still be a democracy? Uh will physical currencies, the way that they are now, will they continue to exist in the future? You know, this whole notion of buying a house and picking one place, and that's where you establish your roots. Is that actually a future uh that is going to be sustainable? Is that a future that lasts? Is that even a future that we want? And so I think what I've learned and what I would encourage others is to use strategic force, to use futures thinking to challenge each and every assumption. Not every day, you're not going to challenge, you know, you're not gonna spend hours upon hours wondering if the light switch is gonna come on or not, but kind of again, not getting to an answer, but uncovering new challenges, uncovering new questions, uncovering new opportunities, um, and pulling the thread from the theory into making it practical, uh, making it applicable, and hopefully building a much more equitable, a much more equal, a much more safe society uh for the rest of the world. Because having been in 16 cities, I know that that's in short supply, uh, especially here in the United States. And I would hope all of us would dive into foresight with the ambition of getting us to a brighter future.
SPEAKER_01Well, you're amazingly passionate, and it's been great talking to you. And I think, you know, I think for you to you've got so many more years ahead of you. And when you if you're looking back at all this, especially this experience that you're living right now, I mean What do you want someone to kind of it's the legacy question, like you know, when you think about the things you leave behind to the field, to you know, society, what what would you like to be, you know? I mean, not even remembered. I think that implies like you're gone. But I mean, just looking sitting on a beach having a having a umbrella sweet drink, like that, you know. What would you want that to be?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, that's such a great question. And one that I haven't done much thinking around. So thank you. That's that's what I'm here for, man. Thank you for asking.
SPEAKER_01That's what I'm here for.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. I guess I would want people to look at me and my journey and understand immediately that like I really enjoyed it. I really loved it. I had no regrets, and and this whole notion of like, you know, he just kind of went wherever the wind blew and made the best out of every situation. And like, that is the best journey he could have been on. That to me would really be satisfying uh for people to understand that, you know, I was part reactionary, pop part kind of thoughtful in the best of both worlds, and it it led to a fulfilling life that had the greatest impact on those around me.
SPEAKER_01Well said. Well, uh Gabe, if people want to uh hunt you down and uh get to know you better, yeah. Find you on the on the web. What's the best place to uh find find your work and uh you know repeat the book again so people can find that on Amazon?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, so hopefully you you go out and get your copy of the book. It's uh Leaders Make the Future, the third edition. Uh 10 new skills for human uh for humanizing leadership in an era of generative AI. Um, you know, g Cervantes at iFTF.org. That's my email. Um reach out at any time I'm on LinkedIn, uh at Gabe the Futurist on Instagram. Um, you know, you can
Where To Find Gabe And Closing
SPEAKER_03see what what new city I'm in, what new city I'm traveling through if you want to reach out. Um, you know, I I welcome all forms of contact. I I really do love uh engaging with folks in the future space. So please do uh re reach out at any time.
SPEAKER_01Cool. Thanks, Gabe. Thanks for being on ThinkForward. It's been great having you. Appreciate it, Steve. Thanks so much.
SPEAKER_00Thanks for listening to the Think Forward Podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms under www.thinkforwardshow.com as well as on YouTube under ThinkFord Show. See you next time.
