Think Forward EP 143 - Rivers, Cities and Invisible Futures with Sherman Cruz

We explore why fear-based futures work narrows imagination and how an indigenous lens replaces control with respect for the unknown. Sherman shares how futures literacy, decolonizing foresight, and relationship-centered thinking change the way leaders prepare for crisis, technology, and the long term.

• Sherman’s journey from governance and risk work to full-time futures studies and strategic foresight 
• How Future Shock shaped a generation’s view of disruption and adaptation 
• Why we do not get to choose our crises and what that means for preparedness 
• Weak signals, Black Swans, and the limits of “safe futures” thinking 
• Dreams and Disruptions as a futures literacy card game for fast scenario building 
• Uncertainty as a learnable environment that surfaces hidden assumptions 
• Leadership archetypes inspired by Sarkar and what they reveal about organizations 
• Decolonizing foresight as power awareness and reclaiming diverse ways of knowing 
• Global South Futures and the idea that relationships are reality 
• Rivers as living entities and what regenerative cities demand from long-term thinking 
• A critique of utilitarian foresight and AI as hyper-optimization built to sell 
• Practical advice for the next generation of futurists centered on improvisation

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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

Transcript

Fear Of The Unknown Vs Respect

SPEAKER_02 0:00

If in in futures in foresight we tend to fear the unknown, right? And and it creates doubt, and therefore it is uncertain. We try to make sense of it so that we can, in fact, actually like psychologically, you know, uh manage you know this uncertainties, whatever that might be, and call it risk management in the process. And then they become products and services. Now, however, uh, in in the context of indigeniety from an indigenous perspective, is that for them the unknown is is something that we must learn to respect. Instead of fearing it, you must respect it.

SPEAKER_00 0:38

Sherman, welcome to Think Forward. Uh, it's great to have you here.

SPEAKER_02 0:43

Thank you very much, Stephen, for inviting me to be a part of your show.

SPEAKER_00 0:48

So it's been a long overdue. Um, so I have been following your work for a long time. And uh, you know, you're living you live in the Philippines right currently, but you've done a lot of global work. I think it's you know, usually best to start with the journey that we all take. Um so tell people a little bit about yourself, um, your work, you know, as a futurist, and more than that, but yeah, and what you've been doing in the in the community.

SPEAKER_02 1:18

Yeah, so at the moment, I'm a full-time futurist, you know, uh every day that I do is is really about you know uh the future, uh and you know, been working with uh governments, uh companies, non-governmental organizations and individuals who are uh interested about the future. And uh more often than not, you know, they ask me to you know provide them some uh information and context about what the future is, really, at least in the context of future studies. And uh when it is applied, of course, uh we all know this, Stephen. It's called strategic foresight. And uh more often than not, you know, it depends on who are you talking to and the kind of invitation that you get. Uh sometimes you use uh different types of thinking hat, right? As a futurist, it depends on the invitation that you have. And uh of course, uh as far as future studies concerned, you've got a you know a pretty quite long uh of uh I would say spectrum of uh futures knowledge and foresight. And uh your client's interest is uh the opening for you, uh, in fact, right, uh to discuss and make futures interesting for everyone. So uh, and I'm also a PhD student currently at the moment uh at the University of the Sunshine Coast in Australia doing uh research uh uh on futures and foresight uh in in the last three years, you know, and I hope to complete the dissertation this year. It's a requirement that I have to uh finish uh uh hopefully by July. And uh of course I do a lot of uh consulting work. Yes.

SPEAKER_00 3:08

Yeah, we we we're gonna get definitely in to dive more into that, especially as you know, the the fo the your what your focus is. Um, you know, your work uh you know, prior to being a full-time futurist, you know, you talked about in our uh our call, kind of prep call. You talked about risk management. You did a lot of risk management work before the pandemic. You know, we talked about kind of maybe many of us are either accidental futurists or stealth futurists, we bring it into our work. And do you find that um that experience kind of helped you shape the futurist that you've become?

Toffler Governance And Becoming A Futurist

SPEAKER_02 3:50

Yeah, yeah. In in fact, uh in my anti-linguistic community, when you try to translate uh the future, you know, uh it's called Masakbayan. And uh I collaborated with a linguistic professor on this in one of the universities of uh teaching in one of the universities of the country, and we we get to learn that the future is an experiential verb. So uh the future being an experiential verb, uh of course, you know, we we put context in what we do and uh we bring our experience uh in into the process. And uh of course, uh over 25 years uh of uh working experience, I would say, in different uh domain from academia to research uh to government uh to corporate, then now as a full-time consulting uh futurist, you know, this variety of experience uh brought me in some sort of uh you know different ways of knowing uh the way we approach the future as far as our communities and the actors and stakeholders that we engage with. And uh the first time I heard about Foresight was when my uh professor in public administration introduced the book Future Shock to us. You know, of course, by Albin Toffler. I think that was like around you know 95, 96, 97, you know, that was pretty quite the most popular book on futures uh during that time and even five years before that. And when I started reading it, uh, of course, you know, you know, I learned that you know there's a such a thing of uh there's such a discipline as you know of futures and foresight, not in the context of academia, but then of course, uh and how Alvin Toffler analyzes how the speed of uh technological advancement would change the way we deal with uh with time and speed and uh the impact of this technology to to us in our way of uh living and lifestyle and and working, and that if you cannot adapt you know to how fast technological changes emerge, you know, you can say that as some sort of a future shock and disrupt you in in many ways. And uh after reading that book, you know, I I I bought all of his books, five of his books, yeah. Uh yeah, and uh the revolutionary uh Alvin Toffler's revolutionary wealth was also you know brilliant. But then I wasn't after reading that, uh of course my perspective was into uh practice, not really in the context of future studies or research until I learned about uh you know future studies as an academic discipline or as a discipline, you know, from Swahil and Neyatula when they offered the course at in in Malaysia, you know, around uh probably 2007, 2008, uh if I remember it right. You see, after a decade, right? Uh when I started Yeah, yeah, I wasn't really into teachers and force of practice because I was into governance, you know, as a as as the chief of staff of a governor in in our province, and uh of course the focus was on the on the day-to-day stuff. Well, we deal with because during the time we had a national governance agenda called the Philippines 2000. That was in the uh around 1992, 1993, it was called the Philippines 2000. And the the country was uh you know shifting from uh the when Marcus was deposed, and then there were coups in between. And uh was Marcos um was that a military dictatorship, or was that just a straight like yeah, he was deposed by his own general who later would later on dick become the president, you know, the Philippine Constabulari uh president uh for uh Fidel Ramos, who we was his cousin as well, you know, and then he had when after Corey Aquino, because Corey Akon Aquino became you know the president, and then after Corey Aquino, then here comes a general who would uh later on become our president, and then he had this you know vision of the country, but not ten years, uh called uh the Philippines 2000, and it was pretty quite clear that you know the agenda was uh economic growth and recovering from the crisis, you know, setting up, addressing the power crisis, you know, the energy crisis, you know, uh among other you know, internal domestic uh struggles, right, challenges within within the country that I I and then that was during the time that Alvin Toffler's future shop was introduced to me. And then yeah, and then after which, you know, a decade after uh I went back to the academia and and teach again after my foray in in uh local government, but before that, I also I was into music even before I became a futurist. So I'm a songwriter as well, Stephen. So I I spent two years of my life became I before I started doing futures in Foresight. And uh you know, gave music gave me uh you know uh the that opportunity to to recenter myself and you know uh you know recover probably like some sort of uh not necessarily a thinking self, but you know, the creative self, you know, uh in in the process that you know led me to be really like go back into studying futures in foresight again. And that's when I you know hop on a plane, went to Malaysia and attended uh a course by the World Future Studies Federation on Future Studies. And uh fortunately for me, uh the professors, you know, the instructor who was there was of course Swaila Netula and then Alvin Toffler, no, not Alvin Toffler, but uh Jim Dater, I'm sorry. Yeah. And then uh when Jim Dater uh spoke about if there is an idea about the future, it must be ridiculous, you know, and uh that that that got me hooked into into futures and foresight, you know, and and and started really like deep dive into the idea of uh the preposterous futures. Of course, beyond the other alternative types of futures, uh, which is pretty quite evident if you start if you study uh foresight.

SPEAKER_00 10:44

No, it's interesting. I have so many things to to touch upon. Uh one of the things I always talk about with a fellow futurist, I feel like we're risk managers. Like our whole thing is to mitigate risk because understanding possible futures and helping people navigate that is essentially a another another type of risk management, right? And it's kind of a natural evolution for your work, right? It's kind of a a different, you know, it's a longer horizon of risk management, but still, you know, helping people mitigate that.

Risk Crisis And Black Swans

SPEAKER_02 11:22

I've always been interested about you know uh the concept of crisis, right? Like it has always been in my plate, uh, you know, working in in different agencies and uh uh institutions, right? And there has always been you know a strong interest about these things, you know, and as you mentioned, you know, uh the concept of risk. And uh of course there are risks that are known to us, right? Like, but then there are risks that are unknown to us. And uh, you know, uh, and we do not have, in fact, if you're not into features in foresight, I'm not even sure if you if you have the lens to look into, or or probably you know, the space to even study the things that are unknown to you. But then, uh, of course, in the context of security, peace and order, risk, and governance primarily, you know, uh these things always come out. But then I think over over the years, I I started to realize that you don't really get to choose your crisis, right? You don't really get to choose your we don't, right?

SPEAKER_00 12:25

You don't get to choose your crisis, you know, choose where you're born. Yeah, there are certain things that uh yeah, it's interesting. When you only get to choose your well, yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 12:34

Yeah, yeah, we we don't get to choose uh our our crisis, and if we don't get to choose it, of course, when you're faced with it, uh of course you don't know anything about it. Uh, you know, you don't have uh probably some sort of, you know, a probably a little bit of sense on how you make sense of it. But then when these are emergent uh types of crisis or unknown to us, like for example, we've seen this and how Nicolas Taleb uh uh accentuated the idea of Black Swan, which even before he published it, features were uh you know uh uh speaking about it and had been discussing this, and sometimes we call it weak signals, sometimes we call it you know, uh uh emerging issues. Uh it depends on who you're talking to, but then of course there are parameters and conditions, you know, uh that we uh acknowledge uh is that you know, we we transcend ourselves by imp uh through improvisation, right?

SPEAKER_00 13:30

Yeah, that's true. And you know, I I keep coming back to Toffler, you know, and you're talking about all this, you know, he's had a huge influence on my life. I read him when he was and people have listened to the show know that how much he's uh had an impact on my life, you know, when I was 13 reading Third Wave and then you know, obviously Future Shock and you know his uh you know macro view I can influence people all futurists of all kinds, you know, can point back to him. But he's definitely I think about the technology curves and waves, things that really he kind of instituted way before we talk about other types of you know theory, but it's really about disruption, disruptive technology, which kind of leads me to your game, which is like you talk, you always think about disruption, right?

SPEAKER_02 14:24

Yeah, yeah. So, you know, uh uh it it's some sort of an evolution as well. Like uh when I started Features in Foresight, my Prime, I was really interested about you know what it was, and then uh of course uh it leads you to learning understanding and learning how to apply the tools and the methods uh in in the process and uh and the tools and met the tools and the methods are more often than not, as far as my practice is concerned, is is actually uh is action learning type. So when it is action learning type, you know you facilitate conversation and dialogue with with people, and through this conversation, uh the you use the tools and the methods to put order into knowledge in order for them to you know have a better grasp of uh the complex things that they've been trying to you know uh uh understand and hopefully you know generate insight that makes sense uh to them. So uh and then eventually I realized that you know you can in fact actually like do futures in foresight even without the tools and the methods, right?

SPEAKER_00 15:28

Explicitly, but uh you can in Yeah, and so many different ways to come at futures work with so many different tools. I mean, you know, there's so many different methods. Um are more you know derivative of other things or they're evolutionary of other things, but you know, I think the core for me, you know, playing with just dreams and disruptions, and people should know it's it's not a podcast, it's not a book, it's uh it's actually a card game. And you know, like you said before, we don't get to choose our crises, and it's like you talk about the randomness. Uh and I think a lot of times I call it safe futures. A lot of places try and kind of stay within their band of what they they hope are will be possible futures versus I don't know, the wild cards are usually not not so much in there. I think it's I think it scares people too much, or it's just not, you know, corporate culture doesn't allow for it, but your game tries to kind of uh I would say get it more present in people's face.

Futures Literacy Through A Card Game

SPEAKER_02 16:31

Uh so yeah, yes, so yeah, uh about the game, you know, uh it's a it's a one when I when we uh start building it, uh the intention was like you know, to develop a features literacy card game, right? And uh as a features literacy card game, of course, gamification is in fact actually a method. You know, uh more often than not, we we understand we probably, you know, uh it depends how you look at it, sometimes you you only see games as entertainment, as a form of entertainment, right? Uh but then of course games are more than that. Uh for for the Dreams and Disruption game, uh it's a structured way uh to play the game, you know, and help people build scenarios quickly by of course uh drawing the things that we usually do in foresight, like for example, your forces of change, uh your disruptions, uh, your uh leadership archetypes. And uh that brings out you know the worldviews that people have when they uh imagine the future. And uh using those games as your you know, prompt cards, variables, it's a combinatorial game, in fact. Uh and when people in fact actually like explore the future together, it creates some sort of a shared future space where you know imagination becomes collaborative. Uh while it is collaborative, sometimes you know, uh they also contest these types of imagination and uh hopefully in the process, you know, uh negotiate it in a way that makes sense to all of the people who are playing the game. And uh over the years uh in playing the game, what I what I learned and what I love about it is is that while everyone is interested about the idea of uncertainty and not just talk about it, uh they get to realize that when you explore uh uncertainty, that uh you know they get to, you know, this this was the insight that I had was that uncertainty, uncertainty is a learnable learnable learnable environment. You know, uncertainty is a learnable learnable environment uh in a way that it gives people the opportunity to surface this uh their assumptions that uh they they themselves didn't even know that they were carrying all on all along the way. And uh because it's a game, you know, uh it's it gives people an opportunity to in fact actually drop their inhibitions and whatever differently.

SPEAKER_00 19:00

Yeah, it's a safe it's a safe space to be unsafe, right? If you will, to be unsafe. So I I the term safe space just really kind of makes me kind of chuckle. It's like I grew I went to Catholic school for like 12 years. There was, you know, it's like you know, deal with everybody. So I think about what's one of the things I really like about your game too, and beyond that, is also for those of you who study social change, there's a lot of different social theorists out there. One of them is Sakar, and you his law of social cycle, you actually pull leadership archetype archetypes from that. So that I think it's an important part because organizational foresight is becoming uh more important, more relevant, you know, not just making things on a project, but making it ongoing. But in order to actually communicate it to leadership, there has to be some type of architect, you have to have a grounding in that. So what what made you choose that and what are the what are some of the archetypes, for example?

SPEAKER_02 19:58

Yes, uh so I you know, I drew I I I I drew some inspiration from you know a social Indian philosopher uh named uh Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar. And uh in his uh theory of change, you know, uh central to his idea of uh as far as his theories of change is concerned, is is the concept of uh his law of social cycle. You know, uh for Sarkar, he he said that you know, uh in a society there's there's what you call a collective social psychology, uh and and they are uh you know, this are you know psychological archetypes. And for him, there are four types of psychological archetype. And uh more often than not, each and every one of us, at least at the unit level, has a dominant psychological archetype. So he reframed and redefined the concept of classes uh in the context of uh psychology instead of matter, right? Like uh the way economics uh actually looked at it. You know, for him, you know, there is what he called the labor mind, and uh the labor mind uh you know uh in not necessarily influence the environment, but they participate in shaping the environment by using their bodies, right? So they build things. Uh yeah, we've seen this, like for example, carpenters can actually like build stuff. And uh for labor uh psychology, uh uh of course they have uh mental propensities that are pretty quite essential to them, like for example, uh you know, uh providing service to others, yeah, which is which are the good part of uh being a laborer, like they're gonna provide the service even if they they don't get paid for it, right? Like as long as they have the opportunity to actually serve others. But then, of course, as far as uh their participation in in shaping you know uh the so the the the social environment is that they get to build things. Now another one is core uh is is the military argument. The military psychology archetype. These people are pretty quite strategic, right? They're good at planning. They have a tendency to really like embrace this concept of order. And of course, one said, he said that the power is in a barrel of a gun. So they can, in fact, actually influence the environment through force. And of course, we've seen this in in the past, at least at the civilizational level, I would say. Of course, you know, it was all about the military, right?

Decolonizing Foresight And Many Futures

SPEAKER_00 22:45

Yeah, I mean, all it's about control, right? Control of population, control of land, control of resources. Um resources. Yeah. Yes, absolutely. You were either you're either uh a soldier, a merchant, or um a worker, or a slave. Or a slave. Right. Exactly. A labor. Yeah. Well, and it it it kind of leads, it's a it's a really good point you make because um we you talk, there's a you've always asked that for I've heard you ask this question a few different ways, different different times. You know, if the future's colonized by fear or poverty of imagination and greed, what does it mean? And I use this word, I'm gonna use it in your statement, decolonize foresight. And why should why should futurists here in the West like pay attention to it? So I and I want to preface before we get into that, define in your term decolonization. I like to use the word deconstruction because it's I think a little less um there's a provocativeness in that, but there's also opinion when you hear when you hear colonizing, like what is that, you know, what is it? Like there's a deconstruction element to it, but yeah, talk about like that question. Like, what does it mean? Like, you know, what does that mean for you?

SPEAKER_02 24:48

You know, uh a lot uh in in terms of you try to contr contrast colonization from decolonization, right? Like, and if you come to think about it, it's really about power, you know, the dynamics of power, you're right, in in in a colonial era, for example, right? Like your your ways of knowing, your ways of being, you know, what's real for you, the way you imagine things if it's uh colonized, is that you know, you might be unconsciously imagining, you know, how the world is perceived by others.

SPEAKER_00 25:26

Right? Uh that's a great, that's a that's a that's a that's a nice definition, that's a good definition. Yeah, because it it makes people think broadly in that sense, which I think is incredibly important, especially as foresight, it's taken on in different form, right? Different ways, right? And you know, sciasip, right? We talked about that, right? What it means, it's means foresight in Filipino. You told you you and I've talked about that. So what does it mean for you? What do you think people in the in the west should pay attention to?

SPEAKER_02 25:57

With you know and then before I respond to that, right? Like, and then just to contrast it with decolonization, is that you know, uh the colonization is you know uh an F-word for you to actually like be aware about it, right? Like that the way you imagine and probably perceive the future has been colonized, right? Because uh when there is some sort of a monotony or a linearity or singularity in the way we perceive the future, as if there's only one future out there, probably is an outcome of a colonial imagination about the future, that it's all about modernity, for example, right? That the future is really just basically informed by modernity and science, right? But then the colonization, while it challenges the view that the future is not just about the modernist science, like, for example, like that there are many other ways of knowing, like, for example, your culture, you know, or your language, your spirit, the way people perceive their ancestry, among other things, is what informs the colonization. So the colonization you know gives you the agency to actually like be aware of it, and then there is once there is an awareness of it, that you can in fact reclaim and recover those meanings and use those meanings to reperceive you know uh possibilities. So it leads to some sort of uh you know a diverse diversification or heterogeneity, not just pluralism per se, but heterogeneity within the pluralism that we do in foresight, right? Like so the many unknowable aspects in the way we do foresight can be some sort of uh you know uh accentuated, amplified by the decoloniality. Right? So yeah, imagine imagine the past, Stephen, before the colonial era, right? Like urbanization was different, right? It's you know, there was a totality of differentiation in the way this civilization imagined urbanization, if if you can call them that. Like, for example, the Aztecs, right? It was a different type of right, like civilization, and then you go to Asia, right, before the colonial era, right?

SPEAKER_00 28:28

Yeah, I look at I think of the Incas. I've been to Peru a bunch of times. I think of the there's there's three layers in buildings when you see them. There's the like I even think civilization there is older than we think, but it's like the early Inca, like, and then there's the Inca Empire era, and then there's the colonial, and you can see it in places like Cusco. And yeah, the the changes in attitude and changes in um per set perceived future is uh very different, but there's you know, still a connection to their heritage and their land. That a lot of that has been, I would say, wiped out in the United States. Um and it it gets me thinking about another thing you've talked about is that needing to move beyond, you know, and and for those that do futures work, this is pretty standard, but those who don't or just listening, just curious about this, we talk about possible, probable, and plausible futures, like the things we or preferred things we want. And you want to, you and this with the game and other things, you know, you want people to embrace. I love this, the the word this down the preposterous, the preferable, and the transformative. It's a pretty bold expansion, you know, and it's like when you think about that with decolonization, what does it make you what opens up for you when you kind of go there? Like, you know, what does that do for you and your thoughts and your and the way you approach working with uh organizations and people?

SPEAKER_02 30:06

Yeah, I I would say that you know many uh of the aha moments that that people get to experience are more often than not, right, derived from the preposterous future, right? Like, yeah. And uh if we give ourselves you know the space, you know, uh to really like explore, for example, or even think, if you get lucky, the unthought of future is that you know it gives people a sense of uh empowerment, right? They feel liberated when they have the opportunity to do so, right? Uh, because uh of course we all we know this is Stephen that you know uh you know the possible, the probable, and the plausible future are almost always informed by current knowledge, right?

SPEAKER_00 30:55

It's more it's more forecasting than it is foresight to a degree, you know.

SPEAKER_02 31:00

It's it's data-driven, everybody call loves to call it evidence-based, right? But then you also have uh, let's just say, you know, the preferable future and the preferable future are types of futures that require your judgment, you know, and this are driven by people's and institutional values, not necessarily by the forces of change, you know, that shapes the way you imagine the future. But then when we talk about the preferabilities, uh decision making comes in, right? And what I've learned in my interaction with with my clients is that it brings out it brings in the value narratives that they have since the founding of their organization. Right? You know, the the values that was essential when the organization was founded or a particular product was invented resurfaces in the construction of preferabilities. Right, because this is long term, you know, we just don't prefer the feature because our interest is in the short run. But then when we talk about preferabilities, because it takes time to actually like do these things, and sometimes people call it, at least, you know, in the companies and corporations, like, for example, products such as liquor or chocolate that has been there as part of their essentials in the last 50 and 70 to the next 100 years, is that when they think about the preferred future, you know, the values that was essential or probably has been forgotten in the process resurfaces in along the way.

SPEAKER_00 32:47

Well, that go ahead. Sorry, anyway.

SPEAKER_02 32:51

Yes, and when this thing's resurfaced, then you get to have an opportunity to have a conversation about the meaning that matters to them as an organization and as leaders in in the process.

SPEAKER_00 33:09

When you taking all of this in, and you know, you'd mentioned to me about uh SciASIP, right? And there's also the global south futures community, which you've created or co-founded. So, like that you have an organization have impact in that way. Like, what's the vision? How does Foresight look different? You know, you just kind of touched upon some of that when it's not being changed, because there's a tremendous amount of stuff going on in Europe, uh, I would say you know, Dubai's, you know, the Dubai forums and their work there, but you don't hear a lot from you know India, South America, just the global south. So, like, what's the what's what does it look like for this organization with the vision?

SPEAKER_02 33:54

Yeah, the vision is in fact, you know, uh you know, surface the idea that the future is also about relationships, that it's not just about the utility of the future to us, you know, to you know, to invent and create something out of it, right? You know, if you come to think about it, you know, the way we do foresight and future studies, probably, no, of course, you know, a layer of that, not the entirety of it, but a layer of it, and uh which is uh pretty quite evident in the way we do things, uh, is uh that we get to use the future as an as an asset, a resource and tool that we can change and to use the future as an asset tool and resources to innovate and change today. So it's you know the use part is uh entirely utilitarian, right? That uh we get to make the future some sort as uh among other things, that it is a thing, you know, that we can in fact actually invent and create. But that's fine. I'm not I'm not really against that. Uh but then the idea of the Global South Futures community is that you know, to expand that view that the feature is not just about the utility of it, but then to amplify the idea that it is also about relationships, right? That if if if if reality is data and data is reality, you know, in the context of uh decolonial foresight from the perspective of the global south, is that relationship is reality and realities are relationships. So it should go hand in hand, right? So the question now, yeah. So the the question uh implicitly would suggest that you know, how do you what kind of relationship do you you wish to build with the future?

Rivers Long-Termism And Regenerative Cities

SPEAKER_00 35:44

It makes me kind of take the through line to that, to your PhD work, right? You're taking it looking at rivers, the cities, nature, the future of nature, really, in a way. It's you know, your dissertation share about your dissertation, especially like regenerative cities. I I love that you talked about you know how rivers kind of become invisible to cities, and you know, it's like I don't want to give you can talk about that, but I think it's fascinating work because it relates to your organization work, your corporate, but it's a global thing, it's not just the south, it's just it's a global. But I'd love for you to kind of help people kind of they don't think probably people don't think about rivers unless it's like that's their source of water, it's right where they live on, it's just not there. So yeah, so tell me tell the audience more about that, because I'd love to yeah.

SPEAKER_02 36:34

So uh now just building on what I've said about you know the way we see the future as a form of of an asset. So the way we think about the rivers in the last probably 500 years, that we've always seen these rivers as a form of an asset and a resource that we can, in fact, actually acquiry and exploit and extract and manipulate in the things that we do to uh to abuse them, right? To generate wealth and progress and facilitate development. But we've seen the results of all of these things. And uh that propelled me to, in fact, actually, like, you know, what's going on in here, right? Like, is there something uh beyond the way we see the future as mere asset? So when I started studying rivers, that I learned that uh rivers are in fact living entities, you know, they're not just assets and resources, as how science would like to define them uh from an indigenous uh perspective when I started studying indigenity in in the way we see the world, is that you know, these are living entities that we must learn to respect, right? And if they are living entities, the only way by which you can in fact interact with them is when you build a relationship with it. And the rivers has you know, even before cities were there, they've been always they've been there, you know, in the past, present, and probably in the future as well. You know, it could uh in fact outlast the city itself, right? And uh in in that way, uh, you know, river also gives you the opportunity to think in the context of the long term, right? Because nature are uh thousands and even you know millions of years, I would say billions of years. Like rivers has been there for billions of years in this planet, you know. So if you use rivers and nature as a variable in the way we probably like study the future, you know, uh gives you a sense of uh an opportunity to reframe and rethink what long-termism is to us as far as a futurist is concerned, beyond the idea of a technology and and tech. If if the unknown, here here's the thing: what what I learned uh is that you know, if in in futures and foresight, we tend to fear the unknown, right? And and it creates doubt, and therefore it is uncertain. We try to make sense of it so that we can, in fact, actually like psychologically, you know, uh manage you know this uncertainties, whatever that might be, and call it risk management in the process, right? Uh, and then they become products and services, right? Now, however, uh, in in the context of indigeniety from an indigenous perspective, is that for them the unknown is is something that we must learn to respect. Instead of fearing it, you must respect it. You know, look at the you know, the different ways of of knowing the future. So if we embark on the idea of instead fearing the unknown, what does it mean for futures and foresight if we leverage the idea that the way for us, probably among the many other ways, and this is one of the ways that that might emerge as essential in the way we do futures and foresight over the long term, like let's just say for the next 100 years, is to learn how to respect the unknowable and probably preposterous things. Right? And by by by by situating respect in the unknowables, probably could grant us, you know, uh not necessarily, you know, that the power or perhaps the agency to create you know better futures uh for everyone and not just for a few. That excludes, of course, rivers, for example.

Why Foresight Feels Too Utilitarian

SPEAKER_00 40:49

What do you think uh in relating, you know, kind of drawing upon that, you know, what do you think the current state of foresight is? You know, we talked, you and I talked about the pandemic, you know, the transformation, the people talk about transformation. Um, I like to call it readiness theater. It's like security theater theater port. Um, you know, what is your take on the state of where things are and with with regards to foresight and transformation? You've worked with so many different organizations. I mean, you've got especially you, you know, NGOs that have a certain perspective or and you know they're funded by certain maybe have they have their mission or their agendas. How would you say that you know the thing the state of of the spaces? Because you're you're touching upon some really, I would say important and I would say un not covered well, like not addressed, it's not being addressed, and it's it's slowly getting there. But yeah, what's what is your take on the state of everything?

SPEAKER_02 41:54

I I I would say is that the current state of foresight is too utilitarian.

SPEAKER_00 41:59

Yeah, you mentioned yeah, you mentioned it's kind of the safe, safe futures, right?

SPEAKER_02 42:04

You know, we we've been complicit into it. I've been complicit into it, you know, in over the years of uh foresight practice that the only way for us to create the future is to in fact actually invent it. Right? We believe in that, right? But then uh inventing things is not just you know, the future is much more about inventing things, right? While it is essential to our way of life and evolution as as is in people and and planet, you know, the future is not just about that, I would say. Right? It's it's it's it's more than that, right? And this is something that we need to figure out, right? If things evolve, and so that view, in fact, must evolve as well, beyond the idea of inventing things. And uh we have uh, in fact, actually like you know, forgotten or perhaps uh forgotten to remember that there are other things in life beyond invention, right? Right, like you have the social, the cultural, the spiritual, you know, the natural, you know, uh the meaning, you know, the philosophy, you know, uh the the things that you know uh that makes us happy, really. Like it's not just about material things, right? Like it's not just the future, it's not just about data, I would say, Stephen, right? Like, because everything is now about data. You know, uh while while that is good, but then I listened to a French philosopher who recently was invited as a keynote speaker in in the World Features Day at UNESCO, you know, he defined artificial intelligence. He's a professor who've been studying AI in the last 30 years, but he's a philosopher. He said that, you know, uh AI is the hyper-optimization of data. And the intention of hyper optimizing data is to sell.

Advice For New Futurists

SPEAKER_00 43:59

True. You are the we are the product. That's true. That's true. Well, you know, I I I've I've been meeting a lot of young futurists, people are thinking about this because the field is I think maturing in a good way that it's hopefully getting easier to hire and easier to grow in that way. Like, what would what advice would you give to this next generation? Especially, you know, things you've talked about are important, like coming from the global south. Like, who might think this isn't for them? Like, what what would you what advice would you, if they're listening to this, what advice would you give them?

SPEAKER_02 44:34

You know, fo fundamentally, though you know, it's it's it's you know, I've I've been uh wondering about this as well. Like, for example, after I finished my PhD, what would my practice look like probably for the next few years? Uh as I've been into consulting work among other things, I'll still continue to do it, but then I might, you know, uh situate and place my practice in the context of philosophy, Stephen.

SPEAKER_00 44:58

Okay, okay. Well specific kinds of philosophy or just philosophy in general, like per se, okay.

SPEAKER_02 45:08

Yeah, philosophy, but uh of course philosophy per se. Right?

SPEAKER_00 45:15

Like, yeah. What what do you think, you know, as we kind of get to, you know, we're you know, getting toward the the end of our show here is uh, you know, what's a I like we don't predict a future, but I love like what do you what do you is something that you believe everyone should be parenting? Something people should be preparing for. Like a highly, let's just say a highly possible future instead of prediction. Like what what should people get be getting ready for?

SPEAKER_01 45:48

Yeah, that's a pretty quite uh, you know, uh an intra hard deep question. Oh wait to the wait to the next one, wait to the next one. Uh wait for a final one.

SPEAKER_00 45:59

In fact, that is that's like are we facing you know an ecological right? Is it dystopian? Is it an ecological disaster? Is it uh an uh AI um like ASI? Like is it a uh you know nuclear nuclear fusion commercial like you know, changing in in the energy, you know, availability. And there's a lot, you know, a lot out there. But what's in the world for you? Like what do you what do you think might might occur as possible? We'll see.

SPEAKER_02 46:37

I I I I think uh, you know, as I've said from the very start of this interview, right? Like in the context, for example, of dystopia, like that we don't get to choose what our crises are, right? So we can only prepare enough, uh, but then what it is it is essential really is you know learning, you know, uh making sense and knowing what exactly is what is uh knowing exactly what adaptation really is, what it means to us, right? And I I think improvisation is is pretty quite essential in in today's world, uh especially when it when everything is you know uh driven by data.

SPEAKER_00 47:15

That's that's a great answer. Prepare for improvisation. I mean, that's a great, you know, it's usually people get more prescriptive or harder. That's great.

SPEAKER_02 47:24

If we if we get better at that, you know, we've seen how artists in in fact actually like influence the future as well. You know, artist has always been so impactful in a way that it changes the way we see ourselves.

SPEAKER_00 47:41

Yeah, and I well and and it I wanted to touch upon something you talked about your practice once you finished the PhD, like your practice for the next 10 years. So, you know, when you're much older, like if you're looking back, what what type of impact do you hope you'll it'll have on the world? Like, what do you how do you want to be your your work to be remembered or thought of as a I don't know, Steven.

SPEAKER_02 48:10

I don't really know.

Where To Find Sherman And Closing

SPEAKER_00 48:11

That is a that is just as good of an answer too. And I I some people have a very firm answer, others don't. It's a totally fair thing, you know. It's I think you know, it evolves in so many ways. Um you know it and it's a totally fair question. So what I would love for people to do is check out your work and especially dreams and disruptions. There's lots of stuff in the in the show notes and links for people to check out, but like where do people in general like find more about you and like dreams and disruptions, your the book coming out, your your work. What's this what's a what's a what's a how about this? What's a s what's the wellspring? What's the head head of the river um for everything to find you?

SPEAKER_02 48:56

Yeah, so uh of course I have I've had my own website, right? Like uh my my my business website is it's the Center for Engaged Foresight. Uh and then of course you also have the Dreams and Disruptions game website. Uh I'm out of stock at the moment, but you know, uh you know the new iteration will will come out around like July and uh or August because the game continues to evolve. And uh, you know, I I am currently like publishing a lot of things uh at the moment, and then I'm planning to like write a book probably in in the next two years. So I'm I'm into writing at this point of my career, Stephen. You know, probably share what my reflections are uh as far as you know uh futures knowledge and and practice is concerned.

SPEAKER_00 49:43

And uh definitely want to have you back for round two. Like, yeah, we definitely want to do that at some point. That's that would be great. Yeah. So well, look, I just want to say thanks for being on the show. Um it was such a great, and I would say very relevant and unique conversation. And just thank you for uh thank you for your time and and just uh great to talk with you.

SPEAKER_02 50:05

Thank you, Stephen, uh, for the opportunity as well. And then uh yeah, looking forward to having more conversations with you in in the near future.

SPEAKER_00 50:13

Thanks everyone.

SPEAKER_02 50:14

Thanks for listening to the Think Forward Podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms under www.thinkforwardshow.com as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show.

SPEAKER_00 50:26

See you next time.