Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast where we have conversations with futurists, innovators and big thinkers about what lies ahead. We explore emerging trends on the horizon and what it means to be a futurist.
Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
FIF Series EP 19 - Exploring a Spectrum of Futures
We explore why thinking of the future as a single destination is a dangerous habit and how to break it. Understanding multiple possible futures is essential for making better decisions and navigating uncertainty in business, careers, and life.
• The future isn't a fixed point but a spectrum of possibilities
• Four categories to understand: possible, plausible, probable, and preferable futures
• No one can predict the future with certainty, but we can prepare for multiple outcomes
• The "probable" future is constantly changing as industries shift and technologies evolve
• Many breakthroughs started as preferable futures that seemed unrealistic at the time
• Challenge your assumptions by asking "what if?" about dominant trends and technologies
• Practice imagining multiple scenarios for the same trend (optimistic, challenging, unexpected)
• Forward-thinking people and organizations prepare for multiple futures, not just one
Try this exercise: Pick one trend affecting your life or work. Instead of assuming you know where it's heading, imagine three different ways it could unfold – one optimistic, one challenging, and one completely unexpected.
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators and big thinkers. Come along with your host, steve Fisher, and explore the future together.
Speaker 2:Welcome back to Foundations in Foresight a Think Forward series. I'm Steve Fisher, and today we're going to break a habit that most people don't even realize. They have the habit of thinking about the future as a single destination. When people talk about the future, they usually talk about it like it's just one thing, like we're all heading toward a specific outcome that's already decided. But that's not how the future works. The future isn't a train on a fixed track. It's more like a landscape with multiple paths, twists and intersections.
Speaker 2:The mistake a lot of people make is assuming that if they can just identify the trend, that one thing that's going to change everything, then they've got the future figured out. But the truth is there's never just one future. There's a whole spectrum of possibilities. Some are more likely than others, some are desirable, while others are ones we'd rather avoid. But if you're serious about thinking ahead, you need to start seeing the future as a range of possibilities, not a fixed point on the horizon. So today we're going to explore why this matters, how to expand your ability to see different possible futures and why thinking in multiple futures gives you a huge advantage, whether you're making business decisions, planning your career or just trying to make sense of the world. Now let's start with a simple truth. No one can predict the future with certainty no one. I don't care how much data you have, how many experts you talk to or how sophisticated your forecasting models are. The future will always hold surprises. But here's where most people get it wrong. Just because we can't predict the exact future doesn't mean we can't prepare for it. The goal of futures thinking isn't about getting a single answer right. It's about understanding the range of possibilities and being ready for more than one outcome, because if you're locked into only one version of the future, the one you expect to happen, you're going to be blindsided the moment things take an unexpected turn, and they always do.
Speaker 2:One of the best ways to start thinking in multiple futures is to break them into four broad categories. There are possible futures. These are the widest range of things that could happen, even if they seem unlikely. If it doesn't break the laws of physics, it's technically possible. Then there are plausible futures, things that could realistically happen based on what we know today. These aren't guaranteed, but they're within the realm of reason.
Speaker 2:Now this is where most people get stuck. They assume the probable future, the one that seems most likely, based on the way things are going, is the only one worth paying attention to. And that's dangerous, because probable futures change. Industries shift, technologies accelerate, society evolves. The probable future of five years ago isn't the probable future of today. And then there are preferable futures, the ones we actually want to happen. These are the futures we design for, the ones we actively try to create. And here's the interesting thing the future we want isn't always the same as the future that seems likely. But just because something isn't probable yet doesn't mean it's impossible. Many of the best ideas, the biggest breakthroughs, started as preferable futures that seemed unrealistic at the time. People used to think that electric cars were a niche market, that streaming would never replace DVDs, that remote work wouldn't scale. Now look where we are.
Speaker 2:If you only think in terms of one future, the one you assume is coming, you're vulnerable to being completely wrong. But if you learn to think in multiple futures, you have more flexibility, you're prepared for different scenarios, you see opportunities others miss, and when the unexpected happens, you don't panic, you adapt. So how do you do this? How do you train yourself to think in multiple futures instead of just assuming a single path?
Speaker 2:One of the best ways to start is by challenging your assumptions. Instead of taking things for granted, start asking what if? What if a dominant technology suddenly became obsolete? What if a major company that seems untouchable today collapsed? What if a social or cultural shift completely changed the way people interact with businesses? The more you ask what if, the better you get at expanding your vision of what's possible.
Speaker 2:Another way to stretch your thinking is to imagine multiple scenarios for the same trend. Take artificial intelligence. One possible future is that AI enhances human work, making us more productive and creative. Another possible future is that AI automates a huge number of jobs, leading to major workforce disruptions. A third possible future is that AI stagnates and, after the hype dies down, businesses struggle to make it useful beyond a few narrow applications. All of these are possible. The question is, are you thinking about all of them or just the one that fits your current expectations?
Speaker 2:The most forward-thinking people and organizations don't just prepare for the future they expect. They prepare for multiple futures. They recognize that the future isn't predetermined. It's something we shape with the choices we make today. So here's my challenge for you Over the next few days, pick one trend, something that's shaping the future right now.
Speaker 2:Maybe it's AI, the future of work, climate change or something else that's on your mind Now. Instead of assuming you know where it's headed, imagine three different ways it could unfold One optimistic, one challenging and one completely unexpected. This exercise will stretch your thinking and, more importantly, it will make you more prepared for uncertainty, because, in a world where things are constantly shifting, the people who think in multiple futures are the ones who don't just react to change they navigate it. And that's it for today's episode of Think Forward's Foundations in Foresight. If you're enjoying the series, go back and check out previous episodes, where we lay the groundwork for better futures thinking, and stick around, because next time we're going to talk about how to build your personal foresight literacy, how to make futures thinking part of your daily life, so you're always ahead of the curve. Until then, stay curious and always think forward.
Speaker 1:Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.
