Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast where we have conversations with futurists, innovators and big thinkers about what lies ahead. We explore emerging trends on the horizon and what it means to be a futurist.
Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Think Forward EP 127 - Building Future Ready Organizations
Organizational foresight is the key differentiator between companies that merely survive and those that actively shape their future, enabling systematic anticipation of change through expanded thinking across three time horizons.
• Foresight isn't corporate fortune-telling—it's a sophisticated navigation system showing multiple routes and spotting opportunities others miss
• The three horizons framework balances improving current business (H1: 0-2 years), exploring emerging opportunities (H2: 2-5 years), and reimagining industries (H3: 5-10+ years)
• Effective foresight models include centralized teams, hub-and-spoke systems, or distributed capabilities—choose what fits your organization's culture
• Start small with approaches like "Future Fridays" or trend newsletters before scaling up
• Build a diverse team combining strategic thinkers, researchers, storytellers, and bridge builders
• Create a futures-focused culture by integrating foresight into existing processes and making it safe to challenge assumptions
• Organizations with mature foresight capabilities achieve 33% higher profitability and 200% higher growth than industry averages
• Measure success through learning metrics, process metrics, impact metrics, and value metrics
• Begin with a "futures audit" of recent decisions to identify where foresight could add the most value
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators and big thinkers. Come along with your host, steve Fisher, and explore the future together.
Speaker 2:Hey there, future shapers, welcome to the Think Forward show. If you are new, then welcome, and if you are returning, then welcome back. I'm Steve Fisher, and today we're diving into something that could be the difference between your organization thriving or just surviving in the years ahead organizational foresight. You know, I always wonder what if Blockbuster had a dedicated futures team back in the late 90s? Would they have seen Netflix coming? Would they have transformed themselves before it was too late? The thing is, it's not just about seeing what's coming. It's about building the capability to shape what's coming. That's what organizational foresight is all about. In today's episode, we're going to unpack everything you need to know about building foresight capabilities in your organization. Whether you're a Fortune 500 company or a startup, whether you're just beginning to think about the future or you're looking to level up your existing foresight program, this episode is for you. We'll cover the different models for organizing foresight work, how to build these capabilities from scratch, creating a futures-focused culture and, most importantly, how to make it all work in the real world. Plus, I'll share some stories from my own experience that might just save you from some common pitfalls. My own experience that might just save you from some common pitfalls. If you caught our last episode, you'll remember our fascinating conversation with Dr Rene Rohrbeck, one of the world's leading experts on organizational foresight. His research has shown a clear link between strong foresight capabilities and superior corporate performance, something we'll dive deeper into today. And if you're enjoying this, we would really love it if you subscribed. And if you are already there, a rating and review on your favorite podcast player would be most appreciated. We need to get the word out and share this information with the world Now.
Speaker 2:When I mention organizational foresight to executives, I often get one of two reactions Either they think I'm talking about some kind of corporate fortune-telling service, or they assume it's just a fancy name for strategic planning. It's actually neither, and both Think of traditional strategic planning as using your rearview mirror and current dashboard to decide where to drive. You look at past performance, current metrics and maybe peak a few months ahead. That's important, but in today's world, it's not enough. Organizational foresight is more like having a sophisticated navigation system that can show you multiple possible routes, alert you to potential roadblocks before you hit them and help you spot opportunities that others might miss. It's about expanding your view from not just what is, but what could be. But here's the key difference, and this is something I learned the hard way during my time building foresight capabilities at major corporations.
Speaker 2:Foresight isn't just about seeing the future, it's about actively shaping it. Let me break this down into what we call the three horizons of organizational futures work. Horizon one is about improving your current business. Think zero to two years out. This is where most companies live. It's your quarterly reports, your annual planning, your immediate challenges and opportunities. Horizon two is where things get interesting Two to five years out. This is where you're looking at emerging opportunities, new business models and transformative initiatives. It's the bridge between your present and your future. Horizon three that's your visionary space, 5 to 10 plus years out. This is where you explore radical possibilities and reimagine what your industry might look like. And here's a secret the most successful companies are working across all three horizons simultaneously. Now I can already hear some of you thinking Steve, that sounds great, but my company can barely plan for next quarter, let alone next decade. Don't worry, I've been there. The good news is you don't have to build Rome in a day. In fact, starting small with focused foresight initiatives often works better than trying to transform your entire organization overnight.
Speaker 2:At its core organizational foresight involves four key activities. First is scanning for signals of change. Then there is making sense of these signals. Next is developing possible futures. And then taking action in the present. And you know what. You're probably already doing some of these things. The trick is making them systematic and intentional, rather than random and reactive. It's like upgrading from a weather vane to a modern meteorological system. You're still tracking which way the wind blows, but now you've got a lot more tools in your toolkit.
Speaker 2:Now let's take a minute and talk about organizational models for Foresight. So you're convinced that your organization needs Foresight capabilities Great, but now comes the big question how do you actually structure it? Where does it live in your organization? Who owns it? I've seen Foresight teams set up in almost every way imaginable, from lone futurists working out of the strategy department to full-blown innovation labs with dozens of people. Let me break down the main models I've seen work and sometimes fail.
Speaker 2:First up is the centralized model. Think of this as your foresight center of excellence. It's a dedicated team, usually reporting to strategy or innovation, that serves the entire organization. Companies like Autodesk have used this model effectively. They have a global foresight team that helps future-proof strategies across their entire operation. Now I'll let you in on a little secret, having run centralized teams before. They're great for consistency and building deep expertise, but they can sometimes feel disconnected from the day-to-day business. That's where our next model comes in.
Speaker 2:The hub-and-spoke model is like having a central foresight team that works with dedicated futures champions embedded in different business units. I saw this work beautifully at McKinsey, where we had a core futures practice but also trained people across different industry groups to incorporate foresight into their work. Then there's the distributed model, where, instead of a central team, you have foresight practitioners embedded throughout the organization. This is like having futures thinking DNA spread throughout your company's bloodstream. Let me break down the pros and cons of each model Now. Centralized teams give you a strong methodology and consistency, clear ownership and accountability and are easier to maintain quality control. But watch out for potential isolation from business units, the risk of being seen as ivory tower futurists and massive resource constraints. Now the hub and spoke model offers better connection to business needs, wider reach across the organization and a built-in translation between futures and current business. However, be prepared for coordination challenges, competing priorities for your champions and a need for strong governance.
Speaker 2:Here's something I learned the hard way the best model isn't always the most sophisticated one. It's the one that fits your organization's culture, size and readiness for foresight work. If you're just starting out, I usually recommend beginning with a small, centralized team or even a single dedicated person, then evolving as your organization's foresight maturity grows. It's like learning to walk before you run or, in this case, learning to forecast before you try to reshape entire industries. Let me share a quick story about this.
Speaker 2:When we built the Futures Practice at McKinsey, we didn't start with a grand rollout. We began with what my colleague, Phil Balagtas, called a tiny trends newsletter, just a simple way to share future-focused insights. That small start eventually grew into a full-fledged foresight practice, but it took time, proof points and a lot of relationship building. Remember, whichever model you choose, flexibility is key. Your foresight function needs to be able to evolve as your organization's needs change and as the future itself unfolds in unexpected ways. All right, now comes the fun part actually building your foresight capability and when I say fun, I mean it. Yes, there will be challenges, but there's something incredibly exciting about creating a function that could reshape your organization's future.
Speaker 2:Think of building foresight capability like constructing a house you need a solid foundation, the right tools, skilled people and a clear blueprint. Let's break this down into manageable pieces. First up. Start small, but think big. One of the most successful approaches I've seen is what I call the pilot and prove method. Let me share a quick story.
Speaker 2:When we were building the futures practice at McKinsey, we didn't start by declaring we're going to revolutionize the firm, and that is with a capital F. No joke, it's in the brand guide. Instead, we began with a simple newsletter sharing emerging trends. It was manageable, low risk and, most importantly, it got people interested in futures thinking. Now let's talk about the dream team. You don't need an army, but you do need the right mix of skills. First is having strategic thinkers who can see the big picture, then having researchers who can spot patterns and signals, as well as storytellers who can communicate possibilities. But most importantly, we need what I call bridge builders, who can connect futures thinking to current business needs.
Speaker 2:Now let's talk tools and methodologies. You know what's funny Sometimes organizations get so caught up in buying fancy software and tools that they forget the basics. Here's what you really need to get started. First, start with a systematic way to scan for trends and signals. Then employ methods for analyzing and making sense of what you find, utilize frameworks for developing future scenarios and don't forget to leverage tools for communicating insights. This will help you turn foresight into action.
Speaker 2:But let me warn you about some common pitfalls. I've stepped into most of these myself so you don't have to. First pitfall Trying to do too much too soon. Remember you're building a muscle your organization hasn't used before. Start with exercises it can handle. Second not measuring impact. Yes, measuring futures work can be tricky, but it's essential. Track things like the number of insights generated, decisions influenced, strategic initiatives launched and my favorite Futures avoided those catastrophes you help prevent.
Speaker 2:Here's something crucial that often gets overlooked Training and capability development. You're not just building a function, you're developing a new organizational muscle. This means investing in your people's futures literacy. Start with basic futures literacy training for key stakeholders, then gradually expand to more advanced methodologies. Think of it like a futures thinking boot camp you start with the basics and work your way up to the advanced stuff.
Speaker 2:Now let's talk about measuring success. This is where a lot of foresight initiatives stumble. Traditional ROI metrics don't always capture the value of preventing problems or seizing early opportunities. Instead, focus on learning metrics. How is your organization getting better at futures thinking Process metrics Are you systematically scanning and responding to changes? Impact metrics what decisions or actions have been influenced? And value metrics what opportunities have been captured or risks avoided?
Speaker 2:Remember, building foresight capability isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. But unlike a regular marathon, the finish line keeps moving as the future unfolds. That's what makes it exciting. You're constantly learning, adapting and evolving. The key is to maintain momentum while building credibility. Each small win builds trust, each accurate insight builds confidence and, before you know it, you've created something invaluable An organization that doesn't just react to the future but actively shapes it.
Speaker 2:Now let's talk about making the shift from reactive to proactive thinking. And no, this doesn't mean installing crystal balls in every conference room, though I have to admit that would make meetings more interesting. You can have the best foresight team, the fanciest tools and the most brilliant methodologies, but without the right culture it's like having a high-performance sports car stuck in a traffic jam. The culture of your organization needs to be ready to embrace futures thinking. The first big shift is moving from predict and plan to explore and shape. Here's what I mean. Traditional planning often asks what will happen, but futures thinking asks what could happen and what do we want to happen. It's a subtle difference. But futures thinking asks what could happen and what do we want to happen. It's a subtle difference, but it's transformative.
Speaker 2:Now let me address the elephant in the room resistance. I've heard every objection in the book. We're too busy dealing with today to think about tomorrow. We can't afford to take our eyes off quarterly targets. The future is too uncertain to plan for. Here's the thing. The future is too uncertain to plan for. Here's the thing. These aren't really objections to futures thinking. They're symptoms of a present-focused culture that needs to evolve.
Speaker 2:Let me share some practical strategies for shifting this mindset. First, integrate futures thinking into existing processes. Don't make it a separate activity. When you're having strategy discussions, make it natural to ask what signals of change are we seeing or what assumptions about the future are we making? Second, build futures literacy across the organization. This isn't about turning everyone into a futurist. It's about giving people the basic tools to think more systematically about the future. And here's a crucial piece Getting leadership buy-in. I learned this one the hard way at McKinsey. You need executive sponsors who don't just support futures work but actively champion it.
Speaker 2:Let me share a quick win that often works. Start with what I call futures conversations. In your next leadership meeting, take 10 minutes to discuss a trend or signal that could impact your business. Make it casual, make it interesting, make it relevant. I saw this work brilliantly at a company where we started doing Future Fridays Just 30 minutes every Friday to explore emerging trends. Within months, people were naturally incorporating futures thinking into their daily work.
Speaker 2:But here's the real secret to cultural transformation you need to make futures thinking feel safe and valuable. This means celebrating good questions as much as good answers, rewarding people who spot early warning signals, creating space for experimentation and learning, and making it okay to challenge assumptions about the future. One of my favorite techniques is what I call future back thinking. It's also called backcasting. So instead of starting with today's problems and projecting forward, start with a possible future and work backward. It's amazing how this simple shift can unlock new perspectives. For example, instead of asking how can we improve our current product, ask what would our product look like in a world where insert future scenario? It's not just a different question, it's a different way of thinking. Remember, cultural change doesn't happen overnight, but with consistent effort and the right approach, you can build an organization that's not just prepared for the future, it's excited about it.
Speaker 2:Let's talk money, because at some point someone in your organization is going to ask what's the ROI on all this future stuff? And they should. After all, we're not running a science fiction book club. We're trying to create real business value. Now here's an interesting statistic Organizations with mature foresight capabilities consistently outperform their peers in long-term value creation. But and this is important measuring the ROI of foresight isn't like measuring the return on a new piece of equipment. As Dr Rene Rohrbeck shared with us in our last episode, his research has shown that companies with strong foresight capabilities achieve 33% higher profitability and 200% higher growth than the industry average. That's not just impressive. It's compelling evidence that foresight isn't just a nice-to-have. It's a competitive necessity. His work at the Aarhus School of Business has demonstrated that systematic foresight practices lead to better strategic decisions, more successful innovation and greater organizational resilience. Think of it this way how do you measure the ROI of avoiding a disaster or spotting an opportunity before your competitors? It's a bit like trying to measure the value of an umbrella before it rains.
Speaker 2:When we think about the future, it's not just about predicting what might happen. It's about preparing for multiple possibilities, so we're never caught off guard. One of the biggest advantages of strategic foresight is risk mitigation getting an early warning about disruptive changes before they happen. This means we can plan ahead, reducing the surprise factor in crisis situations and staying adaptable no matter what comes our way. But it's not just about defense. It's also about playing offense. Innovation opportunities become much clearer when we identify emerging markets, spot new product and service possibilities and even develop novel business models before the competition does. This leads directly to strategic advantage. Organizations that embrace foresight are better positioned for market shifts, giving them more time to prepare and adapt. That kind of proactive thinking creates first mover advantages, especially in emerging areas. And of course, there's operational excellence the ability to build more resilient supply chains, allocate resources more effectively and improve long-term planning. It's about making smarter, future-ready decisions so that when change comes knocking, we're not scrambling, we're leading.
Speaker 2:But let's talk about the elephant in the room the cost of not having foresight capabilities. Remember Kodak they actually invented the digital camera, but failed to see how it would transform their industry. Or Blockbuster they had the chance to buy Netflix for $50 million. Today, netflix is worth over $100 billion. At the end of the day, the value of foresight isn't just about having a cool vision of the future. It's about impact.
Speaker 2:One way to measure that is by looking at how many strategic initiatives were actually influenced by foresight work. Are leadership teams making better decisions because they saw the signals early? Then there's cost savings how much money was saved by identifying risks before they became full-blown crises? On the flip side, it's also about growth. How much new revenue came from opportunities that might have been missed without a future-focused approach? Speed matters too. How quickly did the organization respond to market shifts compared to competitors? And speaking of competitors, did foresight create a real advantage, allowing the company to lead rather than react?
Speaker 2:When you put all of this together, foresight isn't just a nice-to-have. It's a core driver of resilience, innovation and long-term success. Here's a pro tip for building your business case Start tracking these metrics from day one. Even if they're not perfect measures, having some data is better than having none. Let me share some real numbers from companies that have done this well. Shell's scenario planning helped them navigate the 1973 oil crisis better than their competitors. Apple's foresight and user experience trends led to the iPhone revolution. Amazon's AWS came from seeing the future of cloud computing before others.
Speaker 2:But perhaps the most compelling business case for foresight is this the pace of change isn't slowing down. If anything, it's accelerating. Organizations that can't see and adapt to change won't just fall behind. They might not survive at all. Think about the changes coming in the next decade AI, climate adaptation, demographic shifts, new business models. The question isn't whether these will impact your business. It's whether you'll see them coming in time to act. The investment in foresight capabilities is like buying an insurance policy and a growth engine rolled into one. It helps protect you from risks while positioning you to seize opportunities.
Speaker 2:Now, theory is great, but, as they say, the proof is in the pudding, or, in our case, the proof is in the real-world applications. Let's look at how organizations are actually putting foresight into practice the good, the bad and, yes, occasionally the ugly. Let's start with a success story that I witnessed firsthand building the futures practice at McKinsey. You know what's interesting. It didn't start with a grand vision or a massive budget. It started with a simple newsletter called Tiny Trends just a few people sharing insights about emerging changes. But here's where it gets good. That small start evolved into a full-fledged futures practice. The key was building credibility step by step First providing insights that business units found valuable, then influencing actual client projects, finally becoming an integral part of strategic planning. And then COVID hit and we were the bell of the ball. Our tiny group was the one partners brought in because many companies were not equipped to navigate this and terrified of making a fatal financial move. But with us it helped them navigate uncertainty and weather the storm to be more resilient.
Speaker 2:Let's look at another great example. Mcdonald's Global Foresight team, led by Joe Lepore who we interviewed in episode 122, explained how foresight can work in a large, complex organization. They focus on future-proofing strategies by centering on human needs and sustainability. But let's be real Not every foresight initiative succeeds and we can learn just as much from the failures as the successes. The biggest reason foresight initiatives fail isn't because the ideas are bad. It's because they're disconnected from the real decisions that drive the business.
Speaker 2:When foresight operates in isolation, separate from core strategy and leadership conversations, it becomes more of an intellectual exercise than a practical tool. Another common pitfall is focusing too much on the distant future without making it relevant to today's challenges. If foresight doesn't connect to short-term priorities, it gets ignored. And then there's the internal buy-in. If there aren't champions within the organization advocating for foresight and integrating it into decision-making, it quickly loses momentum. Integrating it into decision-making, it quickly loses momentum. The key lesson foresight has to be embedded, actionable and backed by people who can translate future insights into real-world impact. Otherwise, it just becomes another interesting report that sits on a shelf.
Speaker 2:During the pandemic, when most companies were scrambling just to survive, one organization took a different approach. They used foresight to reimagine their entire business model. Instead of reacting to change, they anticipated it. They spotted emerging customer needs before their competitors launched new digital services, ahead of the curve and built supply chains that could withstand future disruptions. But the real game changer they created a culture of forward thinking, embedding foresight into how they operated every day. And you don't need a massive team or fancy tools to do the same. Start simple Create a signals database where employees log interesting trends they notice, then meet monthly to spot patterns and discuss implications. Try Future Fridays where, for just 30 minutes a week, you explore one emerging trend and how it could impact your business. Or run quick scenario sprints fast, focused exercises that help teams think through different futures and apply those insights to real decisions. The most successful foresight programs aren't the most complex. They're the ones that seamlessly fit into how the organization already works, from strategic planning to innovation sessions to risk management reviews.
Speaker 2:The future isn't something you predict. It's something you prepare for, and it starts with small, intentional predict. It's something you prepare for and it starts with small, intentional steps. These are all natural places to integrate futures thinking, and remember to measure and share your successes. Even small wins can build momentum. Document every time foresight helps avoid a problem or spot an opportunity.
Speaker 2:Let me share a practical tip. Start with what I call a futures audit. Look at your last five major decisions. How many of them were reactive versus proactive? How many were based on past data versus future insights? This simple exercise can reveal exactly where foresight could add the most value in your organization. We've covered a lot of ground today, from organizational models to practical implementation steps, but here's what I really want you to take away Building foresight capability isn't just about preparing for the future.
Speaker 2:It's about creating the future you want to see. Let's recap the essential points Foresight is a capability, not just a function. Start small, but think systematically. Connect future's work to current business needs. Build culture alongside capability, and measure and communicate impact. Here's your homework. Yes, I'm giving homework this week. Start collecting signals of change in your industry. Identify one strategic decision that could benefit from futures thinking. Find one ally in your organization who gets excited about this work. For those ready to dive deeper, check out our show notes with key resources like the Think Forward community recommended books and tools. And definitely go back and listen to our conversation with Dr Rene Rohrbeck in episode 126, if you haven't already Remember. Every organization doing great futures work today started somewhere, usually with one person who decided to look a little further ahead, think a little differently and take that first step toward building foresight capability. Why not let that person be you? Until then, keep scanning those horizons and always think forward.
Speaker 1:Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.
