Think Forward Ep 117 - Mapping Impacts: The Futures Wheel

🎙️ Welcome to Think Forward Show Episode 117: Mapping Impacts: The Futures Wheel 🔮🧠

I’m Steve Fisher, your guide on this futurist journey. In this episode, we continue our Being a Futurist series and dive into The Futures Wheel, a powerful tool to explore the ripple effects of trends and decisions. Whether you’re in strategy, innovation, or foresight, this episode will equip you to map out impacts and visualize the cascading effects of change.

🔑 Key Takeaways:

What the Futures Wheel is and how it works

•Steps to create your own Futures Wheel from scratch

•Practical examples of applying it to complex issues

•How it can uncover hidden implications and opportunities

Ready to see the bigger picture and anticipate second- and third-order impacts? Tune in now to start mapping your future!

Explore a range of tools that futurists use to make sense of tomorrow and start thinking systematically about what’s ahead!

🎧 Listen here:

Think Forward Show (Light Version): https://lnkd.in/eVBVJRCB

Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

🔗 Episode List (Lite Version): https://lnkd.in/eAVcg6X4

Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

🎧 Listen Now On:

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/think-forward-conversations-with-futurists-innovators-and-big-thinkers/id1736144515

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0IOn8PZCMMC04uixlATqoO

🔗 Web: https://lnkd.in/eAVcg6X4

Think Forward Show (Light Version): https://lnkd.in/eVBVJRCB

Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

Transcript

Steve F: 0:00

Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators, and big thinkers. Come along with your host, Steve Fisher, and explore the future together. Welcome back to the Think Forward podcast, where we explore the tools and techniques that help us shape tomorrow. I'm your host, Steve Fisher, and today we're continuing our Being a Futurist series with a tool that I absolutely love. Now, I know what you're thinking. Steve, is this just another fancy way to brainstorm? Well, yes and no. Imagine you're playing dominoes, but instead of those little black rectangles, you're setting up possible futures. Knock over that first domino. Let's say its autonomous vehicles become mainstream, and suddenly, you're watching a cascade of changes ripple through society, business, and daily life. That's the power of a futures wheel. It helps us map out not just the obvious impacts of change, but the hidden ones, too. FUTURES WHEEL The second, third, and even fourth order effects that might otherwise catch us by surprise. This brilliant tool was created by Jerome C. Glenn back in 1971, and there's quite a story there. Glenn, who later became the co founder and CEO of the Millennium Project, was teaching social science courses at a time when the world was grappling with rapid technological and social change. He realized we needed a better way to visualize and understand how changes interconnect and cascade through systems. The futures wheel was his answer, a structured way to map out consequences that might otherwise be overlooked. What started as a teaching tool Quickly spread to corporate boardrooms, government planning sessions, and anywhere people needed to think systematically about the future. And here's what I love about Glenn's approach. He didn't just create a tool for futurists and academics. He designed something that anyone could use, whether you're a corporate strategist planning for the next decade, or just someone trying to make better decisions about your career or business, the future's wheel. Can be your secret weapon for understanding how one change can trigger many others. Today, I'm going to show you how to use this tool effectively. We'll walk through the basics, build one together, and I'll share some tips. I've learned from using futures wheels with clients around the world, and don't worry, you won't need any special software or fancy materials, just your imagination. And maybe a piece of paper. So, ready to map the ripple effects of change? Let's dive in. So what exactly is a futures wheel? Think about throwing a stone into a calm pond. The initial splash is your central change or trend, that first disruption to the status quo. Then you see those ripples moving outward in circles, each one triggered by the one before it. I am reminded of this beautiful quote from David Mitchell's Cloud Atlas that perfectly captures why understanding these ripple effects matters. He writes, Many don't think they will make a difference. Or will never amount to anything but a single drop in a limitless ocean. But then he asks, what is an ocean but a multitude of drops? See, we all matter. That's exactly what we're doing with The Future's Wheel. We're mapping how single drops of change create waves of transformation across that ocean we call the future. Picture a wheel with spokes radiating out from the center. At the hub of our wheel, we place our central change. Maybe it's a new technology, a policy shift, or an emerging trend. That's our drop hitting the ocean. Around this hub, we draw our first circle of consequences, what we call first order impacts. These are the direct, immediate effects we can expect to see. They're usually the obvious ones, the changes that don't take much imagination to spot. But here's where it gets interesting, and why I love this tool so much. Each of those first order impacts creates its own ripple effects, forming a second ring of consequences. These second order impacts are trickier to spot. They're the indirect effects, the ones that might not be obvious at first glance. And yes, you guessed it, those second order impacts create third order impacts and so on. Each one another drop in our ocean of change. Let me give you a quick example. Let's say our central change is work from home becomes the norm for most office jobs. First order impacts might include reduced commuter traffic and empty office buildings. Pretty obvious, right? But follow those ripples outward. Those empty office buildings? That's going to affect everything from commercial real estate values to city tax revenues to the local cafes that used to serve lunch to office workers. And that's just one branch of our wheel. What makes the futures wheel so powerful, is that it forces us to think systematically about change. It's like having a map of that limitless ocean Mitchell talks about. Not just the destination, but all the different currents and waves that might shape our journey there. And unlike some futures tools that can feel academic or abstract, the futures wheel is refreshingly practical. I've used it with everyone from Fortune 500 executives to non profit leaders, and even with students thinking about their career paths. www. futureswheel. com The beauty of this tool is its versatility. You can use it to explore the implications of a new product launch, understand the ripple effects of a policy change, or even map out the consequences of personal decisions. It works just as well for a quick 15 minute exercise as it does for a deep, multi hour strategic planning session. As your wheel grows, you'll start to see patterns emerge. Some branches will feel more significant than others. Some might reveal opportunities, while others expose potential risks. That's exactly what we want. A richer, more nuanced understanding of how this change might ripple through our future. In our next segment, I'll share some advanced techniques for getting the most value from your future's wheel. But first, take a moment to appreciate what you've created. A map of possibility, showing how a single drop of change can create waves of transformation across multiple domains of life and society. All right, let's roll up our sleeves and build a future's wheel together. If you're somewhere where you can pause and grab a piece of paper and pen, now's a great time to do it. Don't worry if you're driving or on the move, you can always come back to this part later. Let's use a compelling example that's on everyone's mind right now. Personal AI assistants become as common as smartphones. I'm choosing this because it's a change that's already starting to ripple through society, and it's something we can all relate to. First step, draw a circle in the middle of your paper and write our central change inside it. This is our drop in the ocean, our first domino. Now. Draw lines radiating out from the circle, like spokes on a wheel. These will connect to our first order impacts. Here's where the fun begins. Ask yourself, what are the direct, immediate consequences of personal AI becoming ubiquitous? Let's identify a few first order impacts. First, dramatic changes in how people search for information. Second shift in digital privacy concerns. Three, new forms of AI human relationships. Then four, changes in personal productivity. And five, impact on traditional smartphone apps and interfaces. Now draw circles around each of these and connect them to your central hub. Congratulations, you've mapped your first order impacts. Now here's where most people stop, but we're just getting to the good stuff. Take each of those first order impacts and ask, what might this lead to? Let's take just one branch. Changes in personal productivity. And explore its second order impacts. First is a revision of workplace performance metrics. Then add new forms of digital burnout. Also, add a shift in educational requirements for jobs. And then an evolution of work life boundaries. See how we're moving from the obvious to the interesting. Each of these second order impacts becomes its own circle connected to its parent impact. And yes, we can go further. What might evolution of work life boundaries lead to? Perhaps new labor laws or changes in urban planning as work locations become fluid or an emergence of new forms of social interaction. Here's a pro tip I've learned from countless workshops. Don't self censor too early. Write down everything that comes to mind, even if it seems unlikely. Remember, we're exploring possibilities, not making predictions. Some of the most valuable insights often come from what initially seems like a wild idea. Another key point, look for interconnections between different branches of your wheel. Maybe that change in digital privacy connects with new forms of social interaction. These cross connections often propagates through systems. Now that you know how to build a futures wheel, let's talk about how to make it really work for you. Whether you're a professional futurist, a strategist, or just someone trying to make better decisions about what's ahead. First, let's talk about when to use a futures wheel. I found it particularly powerful in three scenarios. When you need to stress test a strategy or decision, when you're trying to identify blind spots or unintended consequences, or when you want to get stakeholders aligned on the full scope of a change, here's an insider tip I learned working with clients. Start small. You don't need to map out every possible consequence. I usually recommend focusing on three to four primary impacts and following them down to third order consequences. It's better to go deep on a few branches than to spread yourself too thin across dozens of superficial impacts. Now. If you're using this in a professional setting, here's how to make it sing. Instead of doing it alone, turn it into a collaborative exercise. Get people from different departments, different backgrounds, different perspectives in the room. I once ran a session with a tech company where an engineer's third order impact connected perfectly with a marketing person's first order impact. That kind of cross pollination is pure gold. For my futures and strategy folks out there, here's how to integrate the futures wheel with other tools in your kit. Use it early in your foresight process to help identify areas that need deeper scenario planning. Those third order impacts, they're fantastic inputs for your horizon scanning work. And when you're building transformative scenarios, use the wheel to pressure test your assumptions about how change propagates through systems. But here's the real secret sauce, how to present your findings. Don't just show the final wheel, tell the story of how the impacts connect. I like to use what I call the so what, now what, technique. For each major branch of implications, ask Now, what should we do about it? This transforms your futures wheel from an interesting analysis tool into an action driving framework. A word about timing. While you can do a quick futures wheel in 30 minutes, I find the sweet spot for a thorough analysis is about two to three hours. This gives enough time for people to push past the obvious and start seeing those fascinating interconnections. Remember, the goal isn't to predict the future with certainty is to expand our thinking about what's possible. And prepare for multiple possibilities. As I always tell my clients, the future may not unfold exactly as we map it, but by mapping it, we're better prepared for whatever does unfold in our closing segment, I'll share some final tips and a challenge to help you start putting this tool to work right away. As we wrap up our exploration of the futures wheel. Let's return to that beautiful metaphor from David Mitchell about drops in the ocean. Every change we map, every consequence we identify, is like one of those drops. Alone, it might seem insignificant. But together, they form powerful currents that shape our future. I want to leave you with a challenge. Pick a change you see coming in your industry, Organization or personal life. Spend 30 minutes creating a futures wheel around it. Push yourself to get to those third order impacts. That's where the real insights usually hide. Here are three key things to remember. First is to start with a clear, specific change at the center. Second is not to self censor. Just let those implications flow. And third is to look for connections between different branches of your wheel. Remember, like any tool in our futures toolkit, the futures wheel works best when it's part of a larger conversation about where we're headed. It's not just about mapping possible futures. It's about understanding how we can shape them. Next time in our Being a Futurist series, we'll explore another essential tool in the Futurist Toolkit. Trend spotting. We'll learn techniques for identifying and analyzing emerging trends. And we will unpack the secrets of trend analysis and how it powers Futurists to predict and shape tomorrow. Until then, keep exploring those ripple effects. And remember, the future isn't something that just happens to us. It's something we actively shape. One decision. One action. One drop at a time. Thank you for joining me for this being a futurist series episode as always stay curious Keep exploring and always think forward Thanks for listening to the think forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at www. thinkforwardshow. com as well as on YouTube under think forward show. See you next time