Think Forward Ep 115 - Futures Research

🎙️ Welcome to Think Forward Show Episode 115: Futures Research Methods 🔮🧠

I’m Steve Fisher, your guide on this futurist journey, and in this episode, we continue our Being a Futurist series by diving into one of the most essential aspects of foresight: Futures Research. Whether you’re a seasoned pro or just beginning your futures journey, this episode will help sharpen your research skills and open your mind to new possibilities.

🔑 Key Takeaways:

•What Futures Research really is: exploring what could happen, what should happen, and what we need to prepare for.

•The power of qualitative methods like the Delphi Technique, Scenario Planning, and Backcasting.

•The role of quantitative methods like Trend Extrapolation and Cross-Impact Analysis.

•How participatory methods like Futures Workshops and Design Fiction make futures work more inclusive and engaging.

•The future of futures research—AI-powered foresight and more participatory, inclusive methods.

Explore a range of tools that futurists use to make sense of tomorrow and start thinking systematically about what’s ahead!

🎧 Listen here: 

Think Forward Show (Light Version): https://lnkd.in/eVBVJRCB
Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

Let’s shape the future together—start scanning today! #ThinkForwardShow #Foresight #EnvironmentalScanning #FutureOfWork #Innovation

 🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

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 Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

🎧 Listen Now On:

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/think-forward-conversations-with-futurists-innovators-and-big-thinkers/id1736144515

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0IOn8PZCMMC04uixlATqoO

🔗 Web: https://lnkd.in/eAVcg6X4

Think Forward Show (Light Version): https://lnkd.in/eVBVJRCB

Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

Transcript

Steve F: 0:00

Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators, and big thinkers. Come along with your host, Steve Fisher, and explore the future together. Welcome back friends, fellow futurists, and big thinkers to the Think Forward show, where we dive deep into the methods of futures work and talk with innovators and big thinkers. I'm your host, Steve Fisher, and today on episode 115, we continue our Being a Futurist series. We're exploring an important part of every futurist's work, research. Whether you're just dipping your toes into future thinking or you're a seasoned foresight professional, this episode will sharpen your skills. and maybe even change how you see the world around you. Let's cue up some music. Great. Now, let's take a bird's eye view of the Futures Research landscape. Futures Research isn't about predicting what will happen, it's about exploring what could happen, what should happen, and sometimes, what we hope won't happen. But we need to be prepared for it anyway. We've got qualitative methods to deal with the softer side of things. Opinions, Values, narratives, then we've got some quantitative methods that crunch numbers and data. Some methods are exploratory, letting us cast a wide net, and others are normative, focusing on desired features and how to get there. Field has come a long way since the day of reading tea leaves or checking chicken entrails, although I'm sure some Silicon Valley startup's working on an AI powered tea leaf reader as we speak. Let's start with some key qualitative methods. These are the storytellers and imagination sparkers of the future's world. First up is the Delphi Technique. This is an oldie but a goodie. Created by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dahlke at the Rand Corporation in the 1950s, it's a way to harness the wisdom of experts without getting them into a room and arguing. It's like a very sophisticated, future focused version of the game Telephone, but with less hilarious misunderstandings and more actual insights. Next up is Scenario Planning. This is still a major part of what I call the Futurist Food Pyramid. This is where we get to play What If on a grand scale. It's like writing alternate stories, but for the future. Ever wondered what would happen if AI developed a sense of humor? That's the kind of question that Scenario Planning might explore. Then we have backcasting, and as one who builds products, I love this method. This is where we start with the desired future and work backwards. It's like plotting your route home from a party before you've even left the house. Responsible futuring, if you will. It gets the foresight doubters understanding the near term solution and impact, and getting buy in. Then we have the futures wheel. Imagine a spiderweb of consequences spiraling out from a central event or trend. It's a great way to see how one change can ripple out in unexpected ways, like how the invention of the smartphone led to the downfall of the alarm clock industry, and the rise of doom scrolling became a bedtime activity. Finally, in this category, we have wild cards and weak signals. This is where we put on our detective hats and look for the unexpected. Wild cards are low probability, high impact events that can shake things up. We talked about weak signals in episode 104, and they're early indicators of potential future trends. Wild It's like being a trend scout, but instead of looking for the next big fashion, you're looking for the next big societal shift. Now, let's switch gears and talk about some quantitative methods. These are for when you want to back up your crystal ball gazing with some hard numbers. First off, there's trend extrapolation. It's pretty much what it sounds like, drawing lines into the future based on past data. Seems like forecasting. It's simple, but powerful. Just remember, as any financial advisor will tell you, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Then we've got cross impact analysis. I really like this method. It looks at how different trends and events might interact. It's like a chess game where all the pieces are future possibilities. You move one and see how it affects the others. The next one is systems dynamics modeling and it's where things get a bit more complex. Here you're trying to model entire systems and how they change over time. It's like creating a miniature version of the world or a part of it on your computer. Just don't let it become self aware, okay? But if you're really into systems thinking, I recommend you check out episode 113 and 114 with Jon Smart. In episode 103 with Janae Dwayne, lastly, there's agents based modeling. This is where we simulate how individual agents could be people companies or even countries and how they might behave and interact Think of it as like the sims But for future planning instead of trying to get your virtual character to actually use the swimming pool you built Now futures research isn't all about experts in rooms or computers crunching numbers. Sometimes we need to get creative and bring more people into the process. That's where participatory and creative methods come in. First up, we've got futures workshops. I do a lot of these. These bring people together to explore and create futures. It's like a brainstorming session, but with more structure and less arguing about where to order lunch. Then there's design fiction and speculative design. This is probably my favorite part of being a futurist. This is where we create actual objects or experiences from these possible futures. It's like prop making for a sci fi movie, but with the goal of provoking thought and discussion rather than selling movie tickets. Imagine holding a device from 2050 in your hands. What does it tell you about that future world? And let's not forget about serious gaming and simulation. This involves creating games or simulations to explore future scenarios. It's like Dungeons and Dragons, but instead of fighting dragons, you're battling climate change or you're navigating geopolitical crises. Who said saving the world couldn't be fun? These methods are great, because they involve people, they spark creativity, and they make the future feel more tangible. They're also a lot more engaging than staring at spreadsheets all day. Let's face it, the future is for everyone, not just a number of crunchers in white coats. Now you might be thinking, great Steve, but how do I know which method to use? Well, that's where the art of futuring comes in. The key is to match your methods to your project goals and constraints. Are you looking at short term trends, or long term possibilities? Do you need hardened data, or a creative vision? Are you working with a team of analysts, or a group of diverse stakeholders? Often, the best approach is to combine methods. This is what is called methodological triangulation, which is a fancy way of saying, don't put all your future eggs in one basket. Just remember, while these methods are powerful, they're not infallible. The future has a way of surprising us. And as the great sage, Yogi Berra once said, It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Before we wrap up, let's take a look at where futures research methods themselves might be heading. We're seeing exciting developments in AI augmented foresight, where machine learning algorithms help us spot patterns and generate scenarios. There's also a growing interest in more inclusive, participatory approaches that involve diverse voices in the future shaping process. Be aware, the field is constantly evolving, and more rapidly than any other areas of future studies. In future episodes, we'll spend much more time on these topics. Who knows, maybe by 2050 we'll all have AI assistants running scenario analyses while we sleep. So there you have it folks, a whirlwind tour of futures research methods. Remember, these aren't crystal balls or fortune telling noises. They're tools to help us think systematically and creatively about what might lie ahead. But whether you're a budding futurist, a business leader, or just someone curious about what tomorrow might bring, I encourage you to explore these methods further. Experiment with them, combine them and use them to challenge your assumptions and expand your horizons. In future episodes, we'll dive deeper into all of these methods, so stay tuned for that. Until next time, keep scanning, keep questioning, and above all, keep thinking forward. Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at www. thinkforwardshow. com as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.