Think Forward Ep 112 - Scanning the Future

🎙️ Welcome to Think Forward Show Episode 112: Scanning the Future 🌍

I’m Steve Fisher, your guide on this futurist journey, and in this episode, we’re diving deep into a critical tool for every futurist: Environmental Scanning. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned expert, this episode will sharpen your skills and provide new insights on how to spot future opportunities and challenges.

🔎 Key Takeaways:

• What environmental scanning is and why it’s essential
• How to use the STEEP+ Framework for scanning across social, tech, economic, environmental, and political domains
• Balancing broad and focused scanning for a well-rounded foresight practice
• Advanced tools and techniques to help you scan like a pro
• The evolving future of scanning with AI and emerging technologies

Ready to scan the horizon and anticipate what’s next? Tune in now! 🌟

🎧 Listen here: 

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Let’s shape the future together—start scanning today! #ThinkForwardShow #Foresight #EnvironmentalScanning #FutureOfWork #Innovation

 🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

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 Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

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🔗 Web: https://lnkd.in/eAVcg6X4

Think Forward Show (Light Version): https://lnkd.in/eVBVJRCB

Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

Transcript

Steve F: 0:00

Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators, and big thinkers. Come along with your host, Steve Fisher, and explore the future together. Welcome to the Think Forward show, where we dive deep into the methods of futures work and talk with innovators and big thinkers. I'm your host, Steve Fisher, and today on episode 112, we're exploring a crucial tool in every futurist toolkit, environmental scanning, a guide for novices and experts. So whether you're just dipping your toes into futures thinking, or you're a seasoned foresight professionally, this episode will sharpen your skills and maybe even change how you see the world around you. Okay. Let's talk about what this thing is. Imagine it's 2007 and you're a strategist at Netflix. Let's wait, let's set the mood and cue in some nice background music to get the flow. Excellent. So back to your imaginary job at Netflix. You've been diligently scamming the environment, tracking broadband adoption rates, consumer behavior, and emerging tech. Suddenly, you notice a pattern. High speed internet is becoming ubiquitous, digital storage costs are plummeting, and consumers are increasingly uncomfortable with online transactions. You connect these dots and realize that the future of entertainment is streaming. Fast forward to today. And we know how that insight reshaped not just Netflix, but the entire entertainment industry. That, my friends, is the power of environmental scanning. It's like having a crystal ball, except of mystical powers, you're using keen observation and structure analysis to peek into the future. Nah, you might wonder, Steve. How is this different from the weak signals thing we talked about in episode 104? Great question. Think of environmental scanning as the big fishing net we cast out into the ocean of information. It's the process of systematically surveying and interpreting data to identify external opportunities, threats, and changes. So weak signals, which we deep dived into in episode 104, which I highly recommend to listen to if you haven't already. are just one type of fish we're trying to catch with this node. So, those early subtle indicators are potentially important future changes, but environmental scanning is looking for everything. Weak signals, strong signals, established trends, and anything else that might help us understand possible futures. So while weak signals are crucial early warning signs, environmental scanning is the broader method we use to find them. Along with other types of valuable information. It's like the difference between looking for a specific rare butterfly and studying the entire ecosystem of the rainforest. For the beginners out there, think of an environmental scanning as being a detective for the future. You're looking for clues about what's changing in the world. Clues that could have a huge impact on your life, your business, society at large. These clues come in all shapes and sizes from weak signals to major trends. And for you seasoned practitioners, you know that environmental scanning is the bedrock of strategic foresight. It's how we stay ahead of the curve, anticipate disruptions, and shape the future instead of just reacting to it. It's the wide angle lens that helps us spot not just the weak signals, but the entire landscape of change. In this episode, we'll break down the basics of environmental scanning, dive into advanced techniques and tools, And how you could actually get started doing this. So whether you're scanning to future proof your career, guide your organization's strategy, or simply satisfy your curiosity about what's coming next, the episode will give you the tools and techniques to do it like a pro. All right, now that we've set the stage, let's dive into the two key dimensions of environmental scanning, broad scanning and focus scanning. Think of these as the zen levels on your future viewing camera. So first up, we have broad scanning. This is like taking a wide angle shot of the horizon, casting a net as wide as possible, looking for signals across a diverse range of fields and disciplines. We're talking politics, economics, social trends, technological advancements, environmental shifts, and more. The beauty of broad scanning is that it helps you spot connections and patterns you might miss if you're two zeroed in on one area. Remember, some of the biggest disruptions come from left field. Who would have thought a decade ago that a social media app would become a major player in geopolitics? That's the kind of insight broad scanning can give you. For the beginners out there, broad scanning might look like regularly reading news from diverse sources, following thought leaders from different industries on social media, or subscribing to trend reports that cover various sectors. It's about expanding your information diet beyond the usual menu. Now, let's zoom in a bit and talk about focus scanning. This is where you narrow your field of view, To specific domains or areas of interest. Maybe you're laser focused on advancements in AI. Maybe you're keeping a close eye on shifting consumer behaviors in your industry. Focus scanning allows you to deep dive into areas that are particularly relevant to your goals or concerns. It's about becoming an expert in spotting subtle shifts and weak signals in your chosen area. For our more experienced listeners, focus scanning might involve setting up specialized alerts, attending industry specific conferences, or regularly engaging with subject matter experts in your field of interest. The key is to strike a balance between these two approaches. You overwhelm with information, but lacking valuable action when sites. On the flip side, if you're too focused, you might miss important developments from other areas that can impact your field. Try alternating between broad and focus scanning. Maybe dedicate certain days a week to each approach. Or start your scanning sessions with a broad sweep. Then zoom in on some areas that seem particularly relevant or intriguing. Remember, whether you're going broad or focused, the goal is the same. Build a comprehensive view of the forces shaping the future. It's about creating a mental map of the changing landscape around you, so you can navigate the future with confidence. In the next segment, we'll dive into specific techniques that help you structure your scanning process. Now that we've covered the what and why of environmental scanning, let's dive into the how. Whether you're a novice just starting out or an expert looking to refine your approach, these techniques will help you scan like a pro. So let's start With what I call the STEEP plus framework. Yeah, there's a lot of acronyms for this thing. PESTLE, STEEPLE, STEEP, all this stuff. I like to keep it basic. It's a fantastic tool for beginners and experts to ensure you're covering the bases. So STEEP stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political. The plus is there to remind you to add any other relevant categories specific to your needs, like maybe legal or cultural. It could be anything for our novice scanners. Here's how you might use Steep So for social, you can look at demographic trends or lifestyle changes or shifts in social norms. Technological, you can track emerging technologies, innovation rates, or tech adoption patterns. In the economic area, you can monitor market trends, economic indicators, or changes in consumer behavior. In the environmental area, You can keep an eye on climate change impacts, resource scarcity, or sustainability initiatives. And in the political space, watch for policy changes, or geopolitical shifts, or regulatory developments. Now, for our more experienced scanners. You're probably familiar with Steep. You might layer in some more advanced techniques. One powerful method I like is horizon scanning. This involves systematically examining potential threats, opportunities, and likely future developments that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. We'll cover horizon scanning more in depth in a future episode. Another advanced technique is cross impact analysis. This helps you explore how different trends might interact with each other. For example, how might advances in AI intersect with changing work patterns or environmental regulations. For both novices and experts, I can't stress enough the importance of diversifying your sources. Don't just rely on mainstream media or industries. Don't just rely on mainstream media or industry publications. Look at academic journals. Attend conferences virtually in person. Engage in online communities. Look for sources that some might consider fringe or alternative. And don't underestimate the power of science fiction for imagining possible futures. Here's another tip. Set up a system to capture and organize your scanning insights. This could be as simple as a spreadsheet or as sophisticated as a dedicated scanning software. The key is to have a place where you can store, categorize, and easily retrieve the signals you're picking up. Now, let's talk about some specific tools you can use. So for beginners, Google Alerts is a great tool. If you're looking for something more robust, you can use feed aggregators to analyze news from multiple sources. And for advanced scanners, platforms like Shaping Tomorrow, or Itonix, or Orion, offer AI powered scanning and analysis capabilities. Remember, the goal isn't to just collect information, but to make sense of it. Regular review and reflection, Set aside time to look for patterns, connections, and potential implications in the signals you're gathering. And lastly, don't forget the power of collaboration. Environmental scanning doesn't have to be a solo activity. Engage with your colleagues. Join foresight communities. Start a scanning circle with like minded individuals. These different perspectives can help you spot signals you might have missed and challenge your assumptions. But here's the thing, and I can't stress this enough, tools are just that, tools. They're only as good as the person using them. The most sophisticated AI powered scanning platform won't replace human intuition, creativity, and critical thinking. Remember, goal isn't to amass the largest amount of data. It's about finding the right signals and connecting the dots in meaningful ways. Sometimes the most powerful tool is simply a curious mind and a commitment to regularly exploring outside your comfort zone. Let's talk about some insights and observations. The biggest pitfall I see is what I call confirmation bias. Organizations often focus only on signals that confirm their existing beliefs or strategies. They miss the really disruptive signals. Because they're not looking for them. Or worse, they're subconsciously ignoring them. It's all about cultivating cognitive diversity. Involve people from different departments, backgrounds, or even age groups in your scanning efforts. And always ask, what are we not seeing? Or, what would surprise us? These questions can help break you out of your mental models. First, consistency is key. Scanning isn't a one off exercise, it needs to be an ongoing process. And second, Context is crucial. The signals you pick up are meaningless without understanding the broader context and potential implications. And third, communication is critical. The best gaining insights in the world are useless unless, if they're not communicated effectively. The best gaining insights in the world are useless if they're not communicated effectively to decision makers. I always advise starting with the so what. Don't just present the trends, show their potential impact on the business. Storytelling and scenarios to the future feel more tangible. And whenever possible, link your insights to current strategic priorities. Show how scanning can help address today's challenges, not just tomorrow's. I think we're going to see a fascinating interplay between AI and human intuition. AI will get better at processing vast amounts of data and spotting patterns, but human creativity will be more important than ever in making sense of those patterns and imagining their implications. I also think we'll see more emphasis on embodied scanning, that's using all of our senses and experiences to pick up on weak signals, not just relying on digital sources. Now, let's put this theory into practice with a practical exercise. Now that we've warmed up our scanning muscles, let's dive into a more comprehensive walkthrough, take you through the step by step process that both novices and experts can use to conduct a thorough environmental scan and derive actionable insights. Step one, clearly define what you're scanning for. Let's use this example. How might the future of work change in the next decade? Having a clear focus helps you filter the vast amount of information out there. Step two is set your time horizon. Decide how far in the future you want to go. For this exercise, we're going to look 10 years ahead. This time frame affects the kind of signals you'll be looking for. Not too immediate. But it's not so far out that it becomes pure speculation. Step three, gather your signals. Now it's time to cast your wide net. Use a variety of sources, news articles, industry reports, journals, social media, expert interviews, observations, anything you like for the future or work scan. You might want to look at reports from say the world economic forum. Follow some futurists on Twitter or attend a conference or on workspace innovation. Now, step four is to organize your findings. As you collect this information, organize it using the Steep Plus framework. Create a document or spreadsheet with sections for each category. Now, step five is about identifying patterns in the connections. Look for these reoccurring themes or interconnected trends across the categories. Now step six is spot potential disruptions. Pay special attention to weak signals that could lead to major disruptions. These are often found at the intersection of multiple trends. For example, AI assistants, freelance platforms, and the four day workweek could lead to a radical restructuring of how companies build their workforce. We want to synthesize our findings into a compelling narrative. This is about the, so what, how do these potential futures impact your organization? What actions might be needed to prepare? This is about navigating the future here. Remember, the key to effective scanning isn't just in gathering information, but in making meaningful connections and translating those insights into action. Alright future navigators, we've covered the how to of environmental scanning, so it's essential for us to talk about the how not to. futurists can fall into these traps. So consider this your map of potential pitfalls to avoid. There's eight of them. First one up is echo chamber effect, perhaps the most common and dangerous pitfall it's human nature to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs, but in scanning, this could be a disastrous how to avoid it is to actively seek out diverse and even contradictory sources. Number two is mistaking a trend. For a fad, not every shiny new thing is a significant trend. Remember when everyone thought QR codes were the next big thing? Oh, wait, they're back now. Aren't they see how tricky this can be? So how do you avoid it? Well, look for underlying drivers, not just the surface level phenomenon and ask yourself what fundamental need or changes driving this, is there a broader pattern of play? Number three is ignoring weak signals. So it's easy to focus on the loud, obvious trends and miss the subtle hints of major changes to come. But remember, today's weak signal could be tomorrow's tsunami. So how do you avoid it? Make a conscious effort to look for the odd, the quirky, the things that make you go, Hmm, that's interesting. Often these are the seeds of significant future shifts. Number four is analysis paralysis. I've suffered a lot from this in the past. It's easy to get overwhelmed. And stuck in constant data gathering mode with ever moving into insight and action. So how do you avoid it? I've learned to set clear parameters for scanning. Define the focus question, time horizon, and deadline. It allows me to be right. Now, number five is about beat everything is changing the fallacy. Sometimes. And are excited about the future. And I know you are. We can overestimate the pace and scale of change, forgetting that many aspects of human behavior in society remain remarkably constant. So how do you avoid this one? Well, balancing, balance your scaling between change and continuity. For every trend you identify, ask yourself, what's not changing here? What human needs or behaviors are staying the same? Number six is forgetting the so what. Remember we talked about this earlier? It's not enough to identify trends. You have to understand their implications. So how do you avoid this one? Well, for each trend or signal you identify, always ask, so what? What does this mean for our organization or industry or society? What decisions or actions does this insight inform? Number seven is a technology trap. It's really easy to get caught up in technological marvels and forget about other crucial factors like social dynamics, economic realities, or regulatory requirements. How do you avoid this? Well, you can use frameworks like Steep Plus to ensure you consider a broad range of factors. I've done many workshops where the Steep exercise It is full of things, but the rest of it is pretty empty. Remember, the most significant changes often happen at the intersection of technology and society. And lastly, eight, scanning in isolation. This is not a solo sport. If you're doing it alone, you're probably missing important perspectives. So how do you avoid it? Well, create a diverse scanning team or network. Engage colleagues from different departments, age groups, and backgrounds. Remember, awareness is the first step to rewarding these pitfalls. Even experienced futurists can fall into these traps from time to time. The key is to stay vigilant, keep an open mind, and always be ready to challenge your own assumptions. Well, we've journeyed through the present of environmental scanning, but now it's time to scan the horizon of scanning itself. How meta is that? Now let's dive in to how emerging technologies, particularly AI and machine learning, are reshaping the way we peer into the future. I have always viewed Gen AI as a collaborative partner to accelerate my work and provide insights I might not consider. There are a number of ways Gen AI is having an impact on futures work, and in this particular area, environmental scanning, here are a few examples that I'm using in my work. Number one is a AI powered scanning tools. Artificial intelligence is already making waves in the world of environmental scanning. Tools like Quid, Primer, and others are using natural language processing to analyze vast amounts of text data, identifying trends and connections that might take humans weeks or months to uncover. So what does this mean for scanners? AI can process more information faster. Human insight is still crucial. The key is learning to work alongside AI, using it to augment our scanning capabilities rather than replace them. Second area is predictive analytics. Machine learning algorithms are getting better at identifying patterns and making predictions based on historical data and current trends. So what does this mean for scanners? Well, we'll need to become more adept at understanding and interpreting these predictive models. While also recognizing their limitations, we'll need to become more adept at understanding and interpreting these predictive models, while also recognizing their limitations. The future is still uncertain, and outlier events can still catch the best algorithms off guard. The third area is real time scanning. So with the rise of 5G, soon to be 6, and edge computing, we're moving toward our state of real time data. So this could enable continuous, instantaneous environmental scanning. What this means for scanners is that we'll need to develop skills to rapidly analyze and make decisions. The challenge will be balancing the need for quick insights with the importance of thoughtful, nuanced interpretation. Four is a really interesting area. It's virtual and augmented reality. VR and AR technologies could revolutionize how we visualize and interact with scanning data, allowing us to literally walk through future scenarios. I know you're thinking minority report, probably close. So what this means for us scanners is it will need to become adept at creating and interpreting immersive future scenarios. This could open up new ways of communicating insights to stakeholders. Now, fifth is crowdsource scanning. There are platforms out there that aggregate insights from diverse groups of people, and this is becoming more sophisticated, allowing for real time global environmental scanning. What it means for us scanners, it will need to become skilled at tapping into collective intelligence, distinguishing the signal from the noise in this data. Six is the ethical AI and algorithmic bias. Remember, AI is only good as the information that's fed into it. As you rely more on AI for scanning, Issues of bias and ethical AI use will become increasingly important. What it means for us scanners is it will need to become more aware of potential biases in AI systems and work to ensure our scanning practices are ethical and inclusive. A seven is a really wild area. This is quantum computing. It's still in its early stages, but quantum computing could eventually allow for really complex simulations and scenario modeling at an unprecedented scale. It allows for us scanners to expand our understanding of probability and scenario planning to really leverage these new computational capabilities. Number eight, last on our list, is the rise of the augmented futurist. So all these technologies point toward a future where human futurists work in close collaboration with AI systems, each levering their strengths. What it means for us scanners is it will need to continually update our skills, learn to work effectively with these AI tools, while honing our uniquely human capabilities like creativity, empathy, and complex reasoning. Remember, all these technologies are exciting. They're tools, and not crystal balls. The core skills of a good scanner is curiosity, critical thinking, and the ability to synthesize diverse information. And this will always remain crucial. And there we have it, future thinkers. We've journeyed through the fascinating world of environmental scanning, from its fundamental principles to cutting edge techniques and the impact of emerging technologies. So let's take a moment and recap the key takeaways of this. Environmental scanning is not about predicting the future, but about expanding our perception of what's possible. The STEEP Plus Framework. provides a comprehensive lens for scanning across various domains. Let's take a moment to recap our key takeaways. Number one, environmental scanning is not about predicting the future, but about expanding our perception of what's possible. Number two, the STI plus framework provides a comprehensive lens for scanning across various domains. Number three, balancing broad and focused scanning is crucial for a well rounded foresight practice. Number four, Tools are important, but the scanner's mindset, being curious, open, and critical, is paramount. Number five, watch out for common pitfalls like confirmation bias and ignoring weak signals. And number six, the future of scanning itself is evolving with AI and other technologies offering new opportunities and challenges. Remember, environmental scanning is not just a professional tool, it's a life skill. In our rapidly changing world, the ability to anticipate and prepare for various futures is more valuable than ever. So I invite you to incorporate environmental scanning into your daily life. Start small, maybe set up a Google Alert on a topic you're curious about, or commit to reading one article outside your usual interests each day. Whatever you choose, take that first step toward expanding your future vision. Thank you for joining me on this exploration of environmental scanning. Remember, the future is not just something that happens to us, it's something we actively shape. It all starts with opening our eyes to the possibilities around us. Until next time, keep scanning, keep questioning, and above all, keep thinking forward. Thanks for listening to the Think Forward Podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at www. thinkforwardshow. com as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.