Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast where we have conversations with futurists, innovators and big thinkers about what lies ahead. We explore emerging trends on the horizon and what it means to be a futurist.
Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
FIF Series EP 17 - Challenging Your Biases and Assumptions
Steve Fisher explores how cognitive biases affect our ability to think about and prepare for the future, showing why our brains take mental shortcuts that feel like common sense but often lead us astray.
• Confirmation bias leads us to seek information that supports our existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence
• Status quo bias makes us assume things will continue as they are today, despite history showing constant change
• Recency bias causes us to overvalue recent events as predictors of the future
• Groupthink pressures us to conform to consensus views rather than challenging them
• Historical examples like Kodak, Blockbuster, and the 19th century "horse manure crisis" demonstrate how bias blinds us to coming disruptions
• Strategies to combat bias include actively seeking opposing viewpoints, using premortem thinking, practicing "future flip" scenarios, and surrounding yourself with diverse perspectives
Over the next week, pick a future scenario you strongly believe in, then actively look for evidence that suggests it won't happen. Read something, watch something, or talk to someone who sees the world differently.
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Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators and big thinkers. Come along with your host, steve Fisher, and explore the future together.
Speaker 2:Welcome back to Foundations in Foresight, a Think Forward series. I'm Steve Fisher, and today we're tackling something that gets in the way of almost every strategic decision prediction and attempt to understand what's next Bias. Now I know what you're thinking, steve. I'm not biased. I make logical, well-reasoned decisions, sure, and I'm sure you never grab your phone first thing in the morning, even though you know it's bad for you.
Speaker 2:The truth is, we all have biases. They're baked into the way our brains work. In fact, our brains are designed to take shortcuts, to find patterns, to jump to conclusions, to make quick decisions based on experience rather than deep analysis. And while that's great for avoiding danger or recognizing a friend in a crowd, it's not so great when we're trying to think critically about the future. Because if we don't challenge our biases, we don't just misunderstand the future, we get blindsided by it. Our biases we don't just misunderstand the future, we get blindsided by it. So today we're going to break down what cognitive biases are, how they shape the way we think about the future and, most importantly, how you can start spotting and challenging your own biases before they lead you in the wrong direction.
Speaker 2:So why do biases matter in futures thinking? Biases are the invisible forces shaping our decisions and they're sneaky. They don't feel like biases, they feel like common sense. Take confirmation bias, for example. This is one of the big ones and my personal favorite. It's the tendency to seek out information that supports what we already believe and to ignore or downplay anything that contradicts it. Ever clicked on an article just because the headline confirmed something you already thought was true? That's confirmation bias in action and in futures thinking. It's a huge problem Because if we only look for evidence that supports the future we expect or want, we'll miss all the signals that tell us something different might be coming.
Speaker 2:Then there's status quo bias Our tendency to assume that the way things are today is the way they'll continue to be. This is why businesses, governments and even individuals often struggle to adapt to major disruptions. We assume stability is the default state of the world, when in reality history is a long series of unexpected shifts. Or how about recency bias the idea that what's happened recently is the best predictor of what will happen next. If the stock market has been going up, we assume it'll keep going up. If a certain technology has been dominant, we assume it'll stay dominant. But the past few years aren't always a good reflection of the next few years, especially in a world that's constantly changing. And then there's one of my personal favorites groupthink. This happens when we go along with what everyone else believes, because challenging the consensus feels risky. If everyone in your industry assumes that AI is just hype, you might be hesitant to take it seriously, even if all the signals suggest otherwise. The danger in all of this If we don't challenge these biases, they limit the futures we're able to see Now.
Speaker 2:History is full of examples of people missing the future because of unchecked bias. Think about Kodak they invented the digital camera but they didn't take it seriously because they were biased toward their existing film business. Their assumption People would always want printed photos, and we all know how that turned out. Or Blockbuster they assumed people would always want to rent movies in store. Meanwhile, netflix was spotting the weak signals of streaming and subscription models and betting on a completely different future. And then there's the classic example of the horse manure crisis of the late 1800s. Yes, you heard that right. In cities like London and New York, people were panicking over the amount of manure piling up in the streets because they assumed horse-drawn transport was the future forever. No one was seriously thinking about automobiles as the solution. They were too stuck in the mindset of. This is the way the world works. The lesson the future always looks obvious in hindsight, but at the time, bias makes it hard to see. So what can we do about this? How do we start spotting and correcting our own biases before they lead us astray?
Speaker 2:One of the best strategies is to actively seek out the opposite perspective. If you strongly believe a certain future is coming, go look for arguments against it. If you think AI is the biggest revolution of our time, go read an article by someone who's skeptical. If you think remote work is the future, go talk to business leaders who are investing in office spaces. Another great tool is premortem thinking. Instead of just assuming your prediction is correct, flip the script. Imagine it's five years from now and your vision of the future turned out to be completely wrong. Ask yourself what did I miss? What assumptions did I make that didn't hold up? This forces you to confront blind spots you wouldn't otherwise notice.
Speaker 2:You can also practice future flip thinking. This means taking something you assume to be true today and imagining what would happen if the opposite were true. For example, if you assume that electric vehicles will eventually replace gas-powered cars? Ask yourself what if they don't? What if a completely different energy source emerges instead? If you assume social media will always be dominant, ask what if people start abandoning it? What would that world look like? The more you play with alternative possibilities, the less likely you are to get trapped in a single biased perspective and finally surround yourself with people who think differently than you. If you only talk to people in your industry, from your background, who share your worldview, you're limiting the range of futures you can imagine. Seek out diverse perspectives culturally, professionally, ideologically.
Speaker 2:The best way to break out of bias is to expose yourself to ideas that challenge your own. Bias isn't something we can completely get rid of. It's just part of how the human brain works. But if we want to be better at thinking about the future, we have to get better at spotting when our biases are leading us astray. So here's my challenge for you Over the next week pick a future scenario you strongly believe in, something you assume is inevitable.
Speaker 2:Then go actively. Look for evidence that suggests it won't happen. Read something, watch something or talk to someone who sees the world differently, because the future doesn't care about your biases. It's gonna unfold, whether you're ready or not. The question is, will you be flexible enough to see it coming? All right, that's it for today's episode of Think Forward's Foundations and Foresight. If you're enjoying the series, go back and check out. All right, that's it for today's episode of Think Forward's Foundations in Foresight. If you're enjoying the series, go back and check out previous episodes, where we lay the groundwork for better futures. Thinking and stick around, because next time we're going to talk about what drives change, how to recognize the deeper forces shaping the future and why spotting them early gives you a massive advantage.
Speaker 1:Until then, stay curious and always think forward. Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.
