Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast where we have conversations with futurists, innovators and big thinkers about what lies ahead. We explore emerging trends on the horizon and what it means to be a futurist.
Think Forward: Conversations with Futurists, Innovators and Big Thinkers
FIF Series EP 11 - Understanding Trends Versus Fads
We tackle the crucial business strategy question of distinguishing between trends and fads, providing a framework to prevent costly missteps while capturing genuine opportunities for growth. Steve Fisher explains the fundamental differences and offers practical tools to separate hype from meaningful change.
• Trends are like tides (lasting, impactful) while fads are like waves (flashy but temporary)
• Fads lack substance and fade quickly while trends solve real problems and create lasting impact
• Real-world examples: Google Glass (fad) vs broader wearable tech market (trend)
• Segway (fad) vs micromobility/e-scooters (trend)
• Five ways to identify true trends: examine underlying drivers, check the adoption curve, watch who's adopting it, determine if it solves a real problem, observe if it evolves over time
• Remote work represents a true trend backed by technological advances and changing workplace expectations
• AI has evolved from niche technology to mainstream business tool across multiple industries
• Strategic advice: avoid distraction by every new thing, invest in meaningful trends early, stay flexible as trends evolve
Pick something you've been seeing a lot lately and analyze whether it's a trend or a fad by examining its drivers, adoption pattern, and problem-solving capacity. Join us next time when we discuss "weak signals" – the early hints of future change that most people miss.
ORDER SUPERSHIFTS! bit.ly/supershifts
🎧 Listen Now On:
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/think-forward-conversations-with-futurists-innovators-and-big-thinkers/id1736144515
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0IOn8PZCMMC04uixlATqoO
Web: https://thinkforward.buzzsprout.com/
Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
Welcome to the Think Forward podcast, where we speak with futurists, innovators and big thinkers. Come along with your host, steve Fisher, and explore the future together.
Speaker 2:Welcome back to Foundations in Foresight, a Think Forward series. I'm Steve Fisher, and in this episode we're tackling a question that trips up even the smartest people in business strategy and innovation how do you tell the difference between a trend and a fad and innovation? How do you tell the difference between a trend and a fad? Because, let's be honest, nobody wants to be the person who bets big on the business equivalent of parachute pants. At the same time, you don't want to ignore a real trend, only to watch your competitors ride it straight to success. So today we're going to break it all down. What's the difference between a trend and a fad? How can you tell which is which, and how do you make sure you're paying attention to the right things instead of chasing every shiny new idea that pops up? Let's start with the basics.
Speaker 2:A fad is short-lived, flashy and often fueled by hype. It burns bright, gets a lot of attention and then vanishes almost as quickly as it arrived. A trend, on the other hand, is longer-lasting and driven by deeper forces shifts in technology, society or behavior that unfold over time. Here's a simple way to think about it A fad is a wave. A trend is the tide. Fads are quick spikes of interest. Trends evolve gradually and create lasting impact. They are often novelty-driven. While trends solve a real problem or meet a growing need, they usually fade because they lack substance. Trends stick around because they are built on meaningful change, and if you want some classic examples of people confusing the two, I've got plenty.
Speaker 2:Let's look at some fads that disappeared versus trends that changed the game. Remember Google Glass? It was supposed to be the next big thing, a pair of smart glasses that would change how we interact with the world. Turns out, most people weren't too keen on wearing a computer on their face, and glass holes became a thing. That was a fad and for that I am grateful. But then again they are just being reworked into cool Ray-Bans or Oakley glasses. Compare that to wearable tech, a broader trend that includes fitness trackers, smartwatches and even medical wearables. That's a real trend because it aligns with deeper shifts in technology, health awareness and convenience. Or let's talk about the Segway. When it launched, it was hyped as a revolution in transportation, but most people didn't need a $5,000 scooter and city infrastructure wasn't built for them.
Speaker 2:Fad Now. Compare that to micromobility, the rise of e-scooters, e-bikes and shared transportation in urban environments. That's a trend because it's driven by urbanization, sustainability concerns and changing mobility patterns. So the real question is how do you tell if something is just hype or a real shift? The good news is that there are some clear ways to tell a trend from a fad before you waste time or money chasing the wrong thing.
Speaker 2:First, look at the underlying drivers. Trends are backed by real change shifts in technology, demographics, values or policies. Fads, on the other hand, are often driven by novelty, celebrity endorsements or viral moments. For example, remote work isn't a fad. It's a trend because it's supported by technological advances, changing workplace expectations and cost-saving incentives for companies. Second, check the adoption curve.
Speaker 2:Trends build gradually over time. Fads explode onto the scene overnight and then fade just as fast. If something is truly a trend, you'll see it gain steady momentum across different industries and demographics. If it's a fad, it'll have a sharp rise and fall, like fidget spinners, pokemon Go or NFTs in 2021. Third, see who's adopting it. Are only early adopters and influencers excited about it, or is it gaining traction across a broad audience? If something is confined to a niche group, it's more likely to be a fad, but if you see it spreading into mainstream industries, it's probably a trend. Take AI as an example. A few years ago, ai tools were mostly used by data scientists and tech companies. Now AI is reshaping industries from healthcare to marketing to finance. That's a trend with staying power.
Speaker 2:Fourth, look at whether it's solving a problem. Trends usually solve a real pain point or improve efficiency in some way. Fads are often just for fun. Take standing desks the shift toward more ergonomic workspaces is a trend because it's addressing real health concerns about sedentary work. But treadmill desks that was probably a fad, more of a gimmick than a long-term workplace transformation. I mean, do I really want to be on a hamster wheel while I am working in a digital factory setting? And lastly, fifth, is that trends grow, evolve and branch out into new forms. Fads tend to stay static. They are what they are. Take social media the early 2000s blog boom. That was a fad. But social media as a whole is a trend that has evolved from MySpace to Facebook to TikTok, continuously shaping how we interact online.
Speaker 2:So now that you know how to separate trends from fads, how do you use this knowledge to your advantage? First, don't get distracted by every new thing. Every industry has its own hype cycles, but just because something is trending on Twitter doesn't mean it's worth your time. Second, invest in the right trends early. If you can identify trends before they become obvious, you can position yourself ahead of the curve. That's how companies like Tesla, netflix and Shopify thrived. They recognized the real shifts before most people saw them coming. And third, stay flexible. Even if something is a trend, that doesn't mean it will play out exactly as expected. Pay attention to how trends evolve and adapt as needed.
Speaker 2:The key takeaway Fads are fun, but trends shape the future. If you want to be a better strategist, leader or innovator, you need to get better at telling them apart. So here's your challenge Pick something you've been seeing a lot of lately and ask yourself trend or fad? Look at the underlying drivers, who's adopting it and whether it's solving a real problem. The more you train your mind to do this, the better you'll be at spotting real opportunities instead of getting caught up in the hype. Well, that's it for today's episode of Think Forward Foundations. If you're enjoying the series, go back and check out previous episodes, where we lay the groundwork for better futures thinking and stick around, because next time we're talking about weak signals, those early hints of future change that most people miss Until then. Stay curious and always think forward.
Speaker 1:Thanks for listening to the Think Forward podcast. You can find us on all the major podcast platforms and at wwwthinkforwardshowcom, as well as on YouTube under Think Forward Show. See you next time.
