Think Forward Ep 106 - Think Like A Futurist

Welcome to the Think Forward podcast.  My name is Steve and I am a futurist. 

Welcome to our sixth episode, where we unpack what it means to think like a futurist. So whether you're a seasoned professional looking to sharpen your foresight skills or just someone curious about what the future might hold, this episode is your ticket to understanding how futurists approach the great unknown.

My goal with this podcast is to do a few things: first, to have great conversations with futurists, innovators, and big thinkers shaping tomorrow. I will also dive into the tools, mindset and potential pitfalls we make as futurists. 

Thank you for joining me on this journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

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Think Forward Show: www.thinkforwardshow.com

🔗 Steve’s Site: www.stevenfisher.io

Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.

Transcript

Steve F: 0:00

Welcome back, everyone. Today on episode 106, we will continue with our series being a futurist and explore the basics of futurist thinking. Today's podcast title is how to think like a futurist. We will unpack what it means to think like a futurist. So whether you're a seasoned professional looking to sharpen your foresight skills, or just someone curious about what the future might hold, this episode is your ticket to understanding how futurists approach the great unknown. Now I know what you're thinking. Steve, do I need a crystal ball? A fancy robe? Perhaps a talking out? Nope, nope, and well, a talking out would be cool, but it's not required. Futures thinking isn't about fortune telling or having a secret hotline to the year 2050. It's about using critical thinking, research, and a dash of creativity to imagine different possible futures. I've been practicing as a futurist for about 25 years, and I have to say that this way of thinking becomes natural if you're not there already. But Steve, you might ask, why should I care about the future? I'm still trying to figure out what to have for dinner tonight. Fair point, but hear me out. In today's world, change happens faster than you can say flying cars. And no, we still don't have those. I'm looking at you, sci fi movies. But really, do we want them? You see how people drive on the road. I'm a pilot and I really don't want them in the air. But seriously, understanding futures thinking can help you navigate this rapidly changing landscape. Whether you're planning your career, running a business, or just trying to figure out if you should invest in that cryptocurrency your nephew keeps talking about. By the way, you shouldn't. and this should not be considered financial advice . So if you're multitasking while listening to this podcast, kudos to you. You're already thinking like a futurist. Doing something in the present, which is listening, while considering its impact on the future. Becoming a futures thinking expert. See? You're a natural already. So, what is it like to think like a futurist? So let's get some grounding in what futures thinking is overall. Well, there's three jobs where you can be wrong almost all the time and still keep your job. So, Weather person, venture capitalist, and futurist. So futures thinking is like being a weather person for society, but with a much longer forecast and fewer people yelling at you when you're wrong. It's a structured way of exploring possible futures to make better decisions today. Think of it as mental time travel, but without the risk of accidentally becoming your own grandparent. In essence, futurist thinking is about preparing for multiple possibilities rather than predicting a single outcome. It's crucial in today's fast changing world because it helps us anticipate challenges, identify opportunities, and make more informed decisions. So let's cover some key principles. The big one is multiple futures exist. In one future, say we still have flying cars. In another one, we're arguing about turn signals. The point is there's no single predetermined future. The future is shaped by countless variables and decisions, some of which you can account for or see through your signals and trends work, but many you can't. We can influence future outcomes. Your choices do matter. In fact, your decision to wear mismatched socks today could lead to a sock based economy in 2050. That is the weirdest butterfly effect example, but then again, this is the future, right? So let's talk about some tools of the trade. There's a lot out there, but I'll cover three big ones. The first one is trend analysis. This is about identifying and extrapolating current trends. For example, let's do a quick exercise. Consider the rise of remote work. How might this trend impact city planning, real estate, or even fashion in the next decade? Pause the podcast and think about it for a moment. Okay, got some ideas? Great. Maybe you thought about the decline of traditional office spaces, the rise of the Zoom mullet, or the growth of rural tech hubs. Congratulations, you're thinking like a futurist. The second one is scenario planning. The whole point of scenario planning is to look at multiple possible future scenarios. And yes, it's okay to have a zombie apocalypse scenario, just in case. It's about exploring those possible futures, and identifying aspects of them, so that you can have deeper and deeper discussions as you explore those who exist in the future. The third one is backcasting.. This is where you start with a desired future and work backwards to identify the steps needed to get there. For instance, say that we're exploring the future of diabetes care. Step one is to envision the technology and services that might exist 10 years from now. Step two, you work backward to today. And then step three, identify what might be possible in the next 18 to 24 months that could exist to make that possible future a reality. And that's what you can take action on in your strategy today. So let's take some time and talk about the pitfalls. Now, despite all of these tools and techniques, we can stumble in our future's work. So what are some of these common pitfalls? Well, there's definitely an over reliance on current trends. Sure, it's great to get those trend reports. They're really pretty. Or to do your own trends research. But it's not the anchor we should use. They can help inform, but they do not solve. Remember, people in the 1950s thought we'd all have personal nuclear reactors by now. Another pitfall is extrapolating the future based on the present. I'm not talking about forecasting here, but this is where you take the tech or the constructs of today and implement a future using them. Take for example, blade Runner. Great film, one of my favorites, one of the best sci-Fi films of all time. There's a scene where Decker makes a call to Rachel. It's a video call, which is cool, and you would expect that, but it's at a payphone, and for the young people on the, that don't remember payphones, it's essentially where you put a coin in, and go to a place connected to a, a physical pole, and make a phone call. No one considered portable devices in this possible future of 2019. That is one of so many examples, but you get it. And then there's ignoring the wildcards. These are low probability, high impact events. Let's be honest, almost no one had a global pandemic bingo in their 2019 futures card. Well, maybe except for us preppers and Bill Gates, but I never really saw it in major scenario work or considerations for corporations to address. Look at how companies built supply chains for perfection, and then the pandemic crushed them in about 90 days. So ponder what other wild cards you or your team could come up with. Lastly, let's not forget about human nature. We still can't predict what we'll want for dinner tonight, let alone in 20 years. So we will always have our behavior as the top mammals on the food chain, and we can easily make 90 degree turns in our thinking and decisions. Now with all that, how can you adopt the mindset and start thinking like a futurist? Well, first and foremost, it's about staying curious and being open minded. It really is the most important. Curiosity and openness are the keys to being a futurist. Second, you could practice identifying trends and signals in daily life. I know what I said about trends earlier, but that is when you refer to the ones people put out there. That should never be the sole information source. You could journal this. I do that. You could also get your team together and have a daily or weekly signal stand up. Kind of like an Agile stand up. It's like a muscle you need to exercise and form as a habit. Third is to engage in what if thinking. For example, what if AI becomes self aware? What if we cure aging? What if pineapple on pizza becomes a social norm? Think deeply on that one. I will warn you. The side effects may include annoying your friends with constant future predictions and an irresistible urge to say I told you so When the wildest scenarios come true Futures thinking is about more than having all the answers It's about asking the right questions and being prepared for what comes our way whether you're deciding on a college major Preparing your business strategy or just trying to figure out if you should buy that flying car stock Futures thinking can help you make better decisions today. Remember, as the famous futurist Alvin Toffler once said, the illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. So keep learning, stay adaptable, and don't be afraid to imagine wildly different futures. And who knows, by applying these principles, you'll be the one to finally invent that talking owl we've all been waiting for. I know I'll buy one. So I encourage you to keep your eyes open, your mind engaged, and your spirit adventurous. Always embrace the uncertainty of the future as an invitation to learn, grow, and make positive impact. I hope you're feeling equipped to start your journey into futures thinking. And remember, the future is not something that happens to us. It's something we actively shape. In future episodes, we'll continue our being a futurist series and delve more into these topics. Be sure to stay tuned. There's always more to explore and discover as we strive to make sense of our world's complex tapestry. Thank you for joining me on this journey into the future. Your presence and engagement means more than you know. Until next time, stay curious, stay open, and always think forward.